A real constitutional crisis is well underway

I was hoping Trump’s defeat would lead to the death of the Republican Party. Obviously that didn’t happen. It is fair to say that the Republican Party is basically the Trump Party now, so in that sense it is dead. Ronald Reagan, for example, would not recognize the party, although he did much to put it on its present course. Its mission now is to echo whatever Donald Trump says and to remove if possible the few remaining Republicans who dare to criticize him. It’s unstated but obvious mission is to end democracy in the United States leaving only Republicans in charge.

Since Trump’s defeat, the party’s behavior has been truly appalling. They will leave no stone unturned in their quest to regain power, but it must be on their terms. They have tacitly conceded that they cannot win power fairly, so most of their effort is to ensure it is won unfairly.

Many of the prerequisites have been long in place, in particular the extreme right-wing bent of the federal courts. Most of their focus is on voter suppression of those they don’t want to vote. But many states are passing laws that make it impossible for election officials to do their job. Among these is to charge these officials with felonies if they send out an unsolicited absentee voter application or leave an absentee drop box unguarded. Georgia has given the state legislature permission to remove local election officials, or simply to overturn the results of the popular vote for the presidency if they don’t like the outcome. None of these actions are in the democratic spirit, but are signs of desperation for a party for whom losing power fairly is no longer an option.

January 6 should have been the acme of their awfulness. Now it appears to be the first true skirmish of our next civil war, like lobbing the first cannon ball at Fort Sumner. They appear willing to kill democracy to save it for themselves. Basically, it’s a party of traitors. Now the rest of us have to figure out what to do about it.

Legislatively, the answer is H.R. 1, the For the People Act. It would prohibit exactly the sorts of legislative excesses we are now seeing, including gerrymandering and voter suppression. Getting it enacted into law though is a very tough job for Democrats. It currently would need to pass cloture in the Senate, which means it would require sixty votes to end debate on it and bring it to a vote. With a 50/50 Senate, that won’t happen unless Democrats either find the spine to end the filibuster rule or make an exception in this case. Without it, the likelihood is that Republican election law changes in many states will give the party the wins they need to retake the House in 2022.

These other laws tilt the 2024 presidential election in their favor too, even more than it already is. Assuming President Biden runs for reelection, he would need a commanding victory. So far at least with his popularity at 62%, that at least seems plausible. Of course, a lot can happen in the interim, and you can count on Republicans in Congress to do just this. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has said his focus is just to obstruct every Biden initiative.

None of this matters if you rig the system. If Republicans regain their House majority, the next January 6 (actually January 8, 2025) won’t require an insurrection for Republicans to get a Republican president regardless of the Electoral College vote. They simply have to stand united and refuse to certify the results, which then allows the House to decide who the next president will be. In this scenario, the representatives of each state cast one vote as a bloc, so if a majority of states have a majority of Republicans representing them in the U.S. House of Representatives, they get to overturn the Electoral College and the popular vote.

As for presidential elections in 2028, 2032 etc., simply repeat. This is clearly where the party is going. They don’t intend to ever lose again and if it kills democracy in the process, so be it.

To change the way a president is selected would require a constitutional amendment. Good luck getting that passed by three-quarters of the states. There is some hope if the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact get passed by enough states, but that has stalled in recent years. Perhaps Democrats should focus their effort there.

In short, this is a four-alarm fire for our democracy. If we weren’t in a constitutional crisis before, clearly we are now. Fixing the problem looks increasingly unlikely.

Now Republicans no longer believe in republicanism

I can understand if Republicans have an issue with the democracy thing. True democracy is direct rule by the people, which you can still find here in many towns here in New England. Those who show up at the town meeting get to vote on pressing local issues, which around here include weighty matters like whether to buy a new backhoe for the Town of Hadley.

Democracy won’t work on the national level, so our government was formed as a republican (representative) democracy. In a republic, democracy becomes indirect. You elect someone who reflects the will of the majority of voters (or a plurality, in some cases) in the district or state.

Democracy and republicanism are so fundamental to our country that our two major parties are the Democrats and the Republicans. Based on many egregious actions by state houses in Republican-controlled states though, the Republican Party no longer believes in its presumably founding principle: the virtue of a republican government.

Granted there’s been plenty of evidence this is true for many decades. It’s resulted in voter suppression laws and gerrymandered districts. All have one aim: to minimize the number of people Republicans don’t want voting and the power they could wield.

In Georgia though Republicans went crazy. A new law signed in by their Republican governor includes these way over-the-top voter suppression efforts:

  • It’s now illegal to give food and water to voters waiting to vote, a practice only made necessary because the state reduced polling places in minority precincts
  • It allows unlimited challenges to voter registrations
  • Mail in voting requires attaching a copy of your driver’s license or other state issued ID
  • It’s against the law for any group to mail you an absentee ballot application
  • Mobile voting sites are illegal
  • Voting out of precinct is illegal before 5 PM on voting day
  • Vote drop boxes must be inside facilities, not outside them
  • Their secretary of state no longer chairs the state’s election board
  • The same board can temporarily suspend county election directors if they feel their elections need review. That way the counts can be added up “correctly”.

Georgia is but the most egregious and latest example of extremely alarming changes to voting rules by Republican-controlled states. These changes are actually signed into law now, while queues of other restrictive voting laws are being introduced in other states.

One state legislator in Arizona filed a bill that would have allowed the state to appoint its own electors to the Electoral College, which decides who will be president. Fortunately that was dropped, but a total of nineteen changes are being considered. In Pennsylvania, at least fourteen voting changes have been proposed that amount to new Jim Crow laws. The same is true in Michigan and many other states.

In short, Republicans are fine with people voting, as long as they can guarantee they will be elected. And if they can’t be, at least some Republican states are exploring allowing their legislatures to overturn the will of the voters, at least when it comes to who will receive their state’s electoral votes.

The animus of all this is hardly new: racism. Here it is 2021 and in these states they are still freaking out that people of color have voting rights! Moving toward the political center is apparently out of the question. They must have their cake and eat it too. They cannot compromise.

I fear where all this is heading. The long overdue response to all this is H.R. 1, the For the People Act, which Democrats have introduced. It would outlaw most of these voter suppression and gerrymandering tactics, and set uniform voting standards across the various states. It would in effect enable true republicanism, something that is increasingly anathema to actual Republicans! If this becomes law, it’s not hard to see what some states will prefer instead: open insurrection and a new civil war.

The bill is a five-alarm fire for the Republican Party. No wonder Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is sweating bullets over possibly getting rid of the Senate filibuster. For more than a hundred years, the primary use of the filibuster has been to control people of color and make sure they have fewer privileges than the rest of us. It appears the thing that Republicans fear most is not those they don’t like getting power, but having to compromise their racist principles in order to get power.

The For the People Act is not necessarily great news for the Democratic Party either. By outlawing gerrymandering, it could end up actually serving the aim of Republicans to put Democrats in the minority. What it is likely to do though is to break the gridlock by electing slews of moderates who are now largely locked out of Congress. This act could actually make government work again.

That’s a price this Democrat is happy to pay.

An adult in charge

And that’s basically it. One month from today, we’ll have an adult in charge of our country again.

For four years Trump has run the government as if Dennis the Menace were in charge. He was aided and abetted by the Republican Party, but make no mistake: The Republican Party itself didn’t want Donald Trump. They just discovered that they had no choice. Trump crashed their party so it was either adapt and be his fawning sycophant or do what only a relative handful of Republicans did: become Never Trumpers. Coincidentally they are also no longer Republicans, because the Republican Party is now basically the Trump Party.

It was crazy while it lasted, but in a month the party should be over. You know it’s still crazy because Trump sure appears to believe that somehow, he will still be president after noon on January 20. Too many Republicans in Congress are still afraid to state the obvious. I mean, the Electoral College voted last week so that’s that.

Well, not quite. It’s likely Trump believes that when the certification gets challenged in Congress on January 6 that somehow that verdict will get undone. Or there’s the less subtle route. Last Friday, Michael Flynn — his short-lived national security advisor who Trump pardoned — along with attorney Sidney Powell reportedly tried to talk Trump into a military coup. Just until the election could be rerun properly, mind you; “properly” meaning Trump is declared the winner, the only possible correct result.

It sounds like our next attorney general will have new charges (sedition) to file against Michael Flynn. Anyhow, for reasons I discussed in an earlier post, a coup is extremely unlikely, in part because it appears the military voted overwhelmingly for Joe Biden. But also because the military swore an oath to uphold the Constitution, not the president. So did Trump, but Senate Republicans decided that it didn’t matter when your party is in charge.

Anyhow, one of the few things that made me feel better since the election was to watch our president elect behave, well, presidential. He’s busy doing the stuff that presidents traditionally do before they take office, albeit with fitful cooperation from the Trump Administration. Even Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has finally acknowledged the obvious. Frankly, for all his words, I suspect McConnell is secretly relieved that Biden will be the next president. At his heart, McConnell is an institutionalist. Trump wanted to blow up the government. McConnell knows that is reckless; indeed, the surest way to get Republicans out of power is to blow it up. Institutions he cares about, like a conservative-leaning Supreme Court, can’t have much sway if government no longer exists. Also, he could be replaced with someone Trump would prefer more.

Biden’s picks so far have lived up to his promise to create an administration that reflected our diversity. It’s pretty breathtaking, really. Barack Obama’s administration was certainly reasonably diverse, but it was still mostly full of insider white guys. Frankly, had Bernie Sanders somehow won the presidency, I doubt his picks would be as diverse as Biden’s. They would definitely be more progressive, but I doubt we’d have an Interior secretary nominee who is Native American, a sign that Biden truly gets it. An insular figure like Trump would wreak havoc on his political opponents; Biden is wise enough to bring them along and put them to work, making them vested in the outcome.

Biden is smart enough to know he doesn’t know everything, and that he can only be effective through others. Trump never understood this at all; he values only subservience and loyalty. Only someone who has led a completely insular life where they never were accountable to anyone like Donald Trump can think they will always know more and be smarter than others. In his own way, Biden is creating another Team of Rivals, similar to what Barack Obama and Abraham Lincoln did. The ramped-up diversity in Biden’s picks brings out more opinions and perspectives. The effective president spends most of their time listening, not giving orders. In short, Biden’s approach so far is very smart and bodes well for his administration.

Biden also understands that government and business are two completely different spheres and they really don’t mix. Trump’s term has pretty much proved this; he saw the presidency as primarily a way to satisfy his own ego while hopefully profiting from it as well. Government is in the business of serving the people, not the other way around.

Now if we can just get through this final month. Biden is not even president yet and already has a 55% approval rating. Trump never broke fifty percent and spent most of his time in the low forties. Citizens can smell competence, which Biden has aplenty. He may not be the president we want, but it sure looks like he’ll be the president we actually need for this moment.

Republicans don’t believe in either democracy or republican government

It’s taken two and a half weeks, but things have finally reached the totally alarming phase of our post-election madness. With just a couple of exceptions, all Republicans in our federal government seem to be aiding and abetting the corruption of our election and ending our democratic government as we’ve known it.

The good news is that Trump and the Republican Party’s tacit acceptance of his tactics stand little chance of achieving the goal of somehow reversing who will be our next president. The bad news is that if we harbored any illusions that Republicans were not a wholly corrupt party, it’s been blown away by recent events.

Today, Trump has members of the Michigan Republican legislature at the White House to persuade them to somehow give Michigan’s electoral votes to him instead of Joe Biden, who won a majority of them. In reality there’s not much Michigan Republicans can do. The same is true in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, all key states whose votes would need to somehow swing into Trump’s column to pull off this electoral coup. To do what he wants done would have required mendacity and a lot of preplanning. Trump has plenty of mendacity, but almost no ability to plan anything.

The same can’t be said about Republicans in general and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in particular. For more than thirty years they’ve executed an arguably brilliantly devious and mendacious plan to give Republicans disproportionate electoral impact. It’s been done through gerrymandering to the extreme, wholesale voter disenfranchisement strategies, and abetted by a conservative Supreme Court that said those predominantly southern states didn’t need preapproval by the federal government anymore before changing their voting laws and apportioning legislative districts. The Supreme Court said it was a relic of the past. What Trump is doing today in the White House is proof of how catastrophically wrong this decision was. Our courts have gotten so conservative principally because the Senate has been largely controlled by Republicans and Mitch McConnell, and they won’t approve any but the most conservative jurists.

Democracy is the direct rule of the government by the people. You can still find it here in New England, where major decisions are made by whoever attends periodic town meetings. Republican government means allowing the people to vote for representatives, who hopefully reflect their will in local, state and federal legislatures.

Gerrymandering and voter disenfranchisement have been extremely effective in muting the powers of certain voters. It takes extraordinary civic engagement, like we saw in the recent election, to overcome its effects. The Electoral College offers an additional hurdle by giving rural states disproportionate power to select our president.

As Trump’s actions today prove, even that high hurdle is not a bar too far for our president and Republicans in our government to corrupt. Trump’s efforts though are very last minute. A more mendacious future Republican president or presidential candidate won’t make these same mistakes.

I had hoped that this election would bring the end of the Republican Party. I’m likely to be proven wrong on this. Instead, the election is demonstrating just how deeply polarized our country is and how for most Republicans there is no bridge too far for them to cross to achieve their goals. The so-called Law and Order party has no respect for the law, and the only order they will allow is order they declare.

All of this points to how fragile our system of government actually is at the moment. It also shows beyond a shadow of a doubt that Republicans don’t want a republican form of government. They want total control. They don’t want to brook or allow any dissent. They are completely happy with an autocracy, as long as the autocrat is one of their own. Apparently, Trump will do fine.

All this points to a nation that is likely to become increasingly ungovernable as there will be virtually nothing both parties can agree on. The job of one party will be to wholly obstruct the other. And at least for Republicans, rules and the law be damned. It’s all completely fair as long as it works to achieve their aims.

So, I expect we will be marching in the streets. It’s just going to happen later instead of sooner. We’re going through a slow-motion national train wreck. And we’re doing it as the worst possible time, with one party wholly corrupt, with a court system holding but teetering, with a pandemic rapidly worsening, and a president who will obstruct any action that would allow for a peaceful and planned transition of government to Joe Biden.

God help us.

Pay no attention to that man (Trump) behind the curtain!

Most of you will understand the reference, but if you don’t, watch the classic 1939 movie The Wizard of Oz. In the pivotal scene the Great and Powerful Wizard of Oz was revealed as just a man behind a curtain good at pulling levers that blew a lot of fire and smoke. That wizard, like Donald Trump, knew how to put on an impressive show.

To those of us with a brain, Trump was that always that man behind the curtain. It was obvious from the beginning. He was only something special to those who chose to believe otherwise. For many on the right, Trump is their last hope. He’s their hopelessly skewed knight in shining armor with a nontraditional way about him that somehow was going to make everything right again. “Right” in this case meant an end to the creeping anxiety they feel about a world changing too quickly. Change drives them nuts.

It’s not just a lot of Americans who have this anxiety; it’s people all across the world. Wannabee dictators are a dime a dozen and you don’t have to look far to find them. Two of the more prominent ones are Jair Bolsonaro, President of Brazil and Rodrigo Duterte, President of the Philippines. Both promise through control that they will make things right again and ease the crushing anxieties of their populaces to a world changing too quickly.

Americans who picked Donald Trump were voting their anxieties too. Trump was to bring back Leave it to Beaver America, a time when America was triumphant, whites ran pretty much everything, and life was great. Actually, the 1950s kind of sucked. A lot of our success back then was our sky-high income tax rates, which ensured tons of money went to build up our infrastructure. Naturally, this aspect of the 1950s his supporters are particularly unwilling to bring back.

Trump was never this person and in fact modeled the opposite. The breadcrumbs were all around: the many failed businesses, failed marriages, infidelities and his wacky and crazy pants ideas. Trump sold us on a vision he could not possibly deliver. The real Donald Trump doesn’t spend all his time working for you. He uses government to enrich himself, which we now understand because he’s paid little in the way of income taxes for years and he’s massively in debt. Governing bores him. What he really likes to do is tweet, hold rallies and bask in the adulation of his die-hard fans.

And now we also learn that he’s not the Great and Powerful Trump, but just another guy with covid-19. He’s 74 and obese. Statistically, he has an 11% chance of dying from the disease now that he has it. Now at Walter Reed Naval Hospital, he has a team of doctors trying to get him well.

His doctors say he may be released tomorrow, but even if he goes back to the White House it says little. The disease seems to be worst on days 8-12. It’s very likely that his actual condition is much worse than the limited facts we are learning from his doctors. He apparently traveled to a fundraiser knowing he had tested positive and while he was already declining. It appears he’s been on supplemental oxygen but doctors won’t confirm it. Meanwhile, he’s taking a crazy array of drugs not normally given to those with covid-19 and often given to only the sickest of the sick, like dexamethasone. That alone suggests he’s getting oxygen, since it’s not given to those not needing supplemental oxygen because of the possibility of harm.

He likely carried the disease during last Tuesday’s “debate” with Joe Biden. Let’s hope the social distancing keeps Biden free of the disease, but Trump’s children and in-laws showed their support by taking off their masks, a clear violation of the rules the campaign had agreed to. But, of course, Trump is all about breaking the rules as he did almost constantly during the debate itself.

Prominent Republicans all over the places are coming down with the disease or are testing positive. You can watch many of them slapping each other’s backs at the ceremony in the Rose Garden where Trump introduced his pick for the Supreme Court. No masks. No social distancing. People shaking hands and hugging. Chairs were laid next to each other.

It’s getting so bad that three Republican senators have tested positive, so it’s unclear if Trump’s supreme court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett can get a quick hearing. It’s not clear if due to the absence of these senators if Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has to votes to even advance the nomination. All this is because Republicans swallowed the Trump Kool-Aid. They were too spineless to wear masks and social distance because they worried Trump would be mad at them.

Some are wondering if karma is at work. Trump has dodged it all his life. I like the idea of karma, but I’m skeptical it’s a thing. It suggests there are some higher and unseen forces at work.

Trump could die from covid-19. It’s true I would not shed any tears if he did, except possibly of joy. It would certainly feel just. But it would not actually be just. His death would simply be another way he avoided accountability for his actions; it would be anti-karmic. He deserves to get well enough to lose massively at the polls, so there is no ambiguity that voters rejected not just Trump, but Trumpism. Today’s NBC News/WSJ poll shows Biden with a 14% lead nationally. Trump is now polling under 40%, which is Herbert Hoover territory.

Much like the unpopular Jimmy Carter, Hoover went on to have a very successful ex-presidency. Assuming we can stave off civil war and put Joe Biden successfully in office, this is unlikely to be Trump’s fate. So, here’s hoping Trump survives this disease so the law can finally catch up to him. But I fear he will cheat his way out of it. Dying of covid-19 may be his only way out.

The coming Democratic blowout

How much does Donald Trump want to win reelection? So much that there is literally nothing he won’t try to win it. The only weird part is that the harder he tries, the more he screws himself.

He’s going for broke, which is sort of the way he’s run the Trump Organization, given its many bankruptcies over the years. He’s only increasing the odds that he will have to deal with many criminal charges and civil lawsuits after leaving office. In addition to his actions being counterproductive to him, they are going to devastate Republican candidates across the board, including in state legislature races.

Literally no other president would even consider doing something so patently illegal as maiming the Post Office. The Post Office has the overwhelming approval of people in all parties. It’s one of the few functions of government specifically written into the U.S. Constitution. Our founders saw a mail service as so essential that it is explicitly chartered as an allowed government service. Since its first postmaster Benjamin Franklin set it up, it’s been largely untouchable.

But to Donald Trump, it’s just something to manipulate to help ensure his reelection. His toady of a new postmaster general has prohibited overtime and removed mail sorting machines from hundreds of mail processing facilities, as well as removed dozens of people from his senior staff with deep institutional knowledge. It’s true that mail volume has decreased and some of this is necessary, but not when Americans are filling the mail system with ballots. Mail is backlogging in postal facilities nationwide and in many cases it now must be sorted tediously by hand by postal clerks who are prohibited from accruing overtime. People, particularly rural people who vote disproportionately Republican, depend on it for critical things like getting prescription drugs and social security checks. How do you think this way play politically for Trump?

But that’s all appears to be expendable to Donald Trump because he’s convinced if ballots can’t be counted because they don’t arrive, he’ll win. It will throw a huge amount of chaos into the election, but it’s unlikely to change any results in his favor. People concerned about their vote counting will probably drive by city hall instead and insert their ballots into the ballot box instead. That’s likely what we are going to do.

Similarly, there are his executive orders. Four were recently issued, but actually only one (the other three were memorandum with little teeth) qualifies. All this is because he and Democrats in Congress can’t agree on a pandemic funding bill. Democrats offered $3 trillion; he offered $1 trillion. Democrats suggested meeting in the middle at $2 trillion and he said $1 trillion and we’re not going any higher. When Democrats wouldn’t take the bait, he issued these “orders” instead, cutting the previous benefits from $600 to $400, of which states had to chip in $100 for unemployed to get any of this money. These states are already running in the red because the economy is down so virtually no states can afford this “system”. Oh, and the money would come from disaster relief funds … no chance of needing some of that money considering we’re having a very active hurricane season, right?

Then there’s his unilateral payroll tax “cut”, but it’s really a tax deferral. The taxes are still owed; it’s just that some employers may stop collecting them. This is very dubious legally, but of course it expands the budget deficit and worse, strikes at the heart of the solvency of the Social Security system. This is something else Trump doesn’t like and this looks like an end around to wound it, but his most staunch voters depend on its solvency.

Most likely Trump will eventually realize he has to strike a deal more to Democrats’ liking. He can hope of course that some of voters’ ire will also be directed at Democrats that can’t come to a deal, but the Democrat’s position looks much more politically tenable than Trump’s. In addition, it’s not like Democrats have been sitting on the sidelines. The Democratic House passed a generous bill back in May, but Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to take it up. McConnell couldn’t even create a consensus bill among his own party and effectively washed his hands of the issue.

About half of his conference is opposed to all the deficit spending although not one of them will call for the repeal of their tax cuts for the rich to address the issue. That’s why Trump is left to negotiate with Democrats who are at least reasonably reunited. Naturally he can’t negotiate with Nancy Pelosi or Chuck Schumer directly. He’s got a tiff with Pelosi going, so it will have to be through his chief of staff and Treasury secretary. In the meantime, the unemployed don’t have much if anything in the way of income and most can’t pay their rent and many are likely to be evicted.

Then there is his continued bungling on the pandemic, which is now hitting mostly red states the most severely. He keeps pushing for deeply stupid things that make the crisis worse, which will get much worse when schools start to seriously reopen. Students will transmit the virus home to parents, and pass it on to their teachers and school staff. This will push infection rates even higher into the fall.

It’s a strategy not just for losing, but also for a Democratic blowout. And it’s not hard to figure out why. It’s because neither Trump nor the Republican Party have a clue on how to govern.

Trump is impeached. So now what?

So yea, I got my wish: Donald Trump is impeached, and he’s become the first Republican president to earn the dubious distinction. (Richard Nixon was wise enough to resign before the House voted.) I should be dancing for joy except I don’t dance and this momentous event is really just one strategic chess move in a much larger chess board.

Not to spoil it for you, but we Democrats are down a queen and regaining the chess board is going to be tough. Impeaching Trump is like taking a rook without penalty, but Democrats are a long way from restoring a functional democracy again. And really, that’s what it’s all about for me. I don’t want Democrats to run everything; I just want a real republic again.

We don’t have that now. With the courts stacked with some 150 new federal judges since Trump took office, almost all very conservative, a 5-4 conservative-leaning Supreme Court, an Electoral College stacked against the majority and red states having contests to see who can purge the most Democratic-leaning voters from their voting roles, it’s a very scary time. Our republic is now in a very fragile state, and it’s abundantly clear that Republicans are using all their powers, and lots of dirty tricks, to get rid of it altogether.

That’s because unlike their chess board, they know our side could add more chess pieces to the board. But this takes time and it also takes a functioning republic. Demographics will eventually bite Republicans in the ass, but it only matters if we have a functioning republic. It’s clear that losing political power is not something they can allow if they can help it, so they will be pushing very hard to make sure it doesn’t happen.

So what’s next? A Senate trial, of course, which shows every likelihood of being a sham trial. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is already stacking the deck, not that it’s likely that twenty Republican senators will vote to convict Trump. McConnell has openly said he is working with the White House counsel, and he’s hinting that he doesn’t want any witnesses called.

So there will likely be no testimony from those key witnesses that Trump wouldn’t let testify, like his acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney or John Bolton, his recently departed national security advisor. In a real Senate trial, Trump shouldn’t be able to keep them from testifying. Or maybe he could, but the optics would look really bad with Republicans in control of the chamber. In any event, the Chief Justice presides and if Senate rules allowed it, he would require it. So better to not allow it in the first place, let each side bloviate their same talking points and then let pretty much everyone do what they were going to do anyhow: vote their political leanings.

If these witnesses do testify though, it’s likely to be damning; it just won’t make any difference. Because the new game is now the 2020 elections. It’s not news to most of us who pay attention that senators vote their prejudices and the interests of those who give them campaign money, with a few exceptions. If these key witnesses actually testify to what they saw, and testify truthfully, it is damning of Trump’s guilt. But it won’t make a difference to Trump retaining his office, but it may make a difference to voters.

A lot of hay was made of the U.K.’s Conservative Party winning a decisive majority in Parliament in their recent snap elections. Many pundits see in this a warning for Democrats here: pull to the center and don’t nominate a candidate for president on the liberal extreme like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.

They may have a point. Or they may be missing the point. As best I can tell, the vote was much more about Britons being sick of the Brexit issue and just wanting it to go away. Brexit has been their own all-consuming national nightmare. It didn’t help that Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbin was even wackier than Boris Johnson, the current prime minister. Voters there may have thrown up their hands, not so much because they love conservatives and want to be separated from the European Union as they don’t want to deal with the issue anymore. Like Trump’s presidency, Brexit has been turning the U.K. into an ungovernable mess.

It may be that U.S. voters want to end our ungovernable mess in Washington too. If so, at least they will have a clear choice: go with a radical new government that disenfranchises many voters and gives power to those with money, or return to a saner time when government at least wasn’t quite so insane. Republicans like power but do they really want four more years of a seesawing Trump presidency? It’s just a chaotic mess. For Republicans in Congress, of course the answer is yes, but for a lot of Republican voters out there, about 15 percent according to most polls, the answer could very well be no.

So Joe Biden may look old and not the least bit shiny, but at least he’s not nutso, he’s not corruptible and he’s spent most of his career simply trying to do the right thing for the country and his constituents, albeit imperfectly. And he’s willing to work across the aisle, although it didn’t work at all for Barack Obama. He’s definitely not Jeremy Corbin. For those of us with longer memories, he’s much more like Hubert Humphrey: another happy warrior.

Trump will try to win the election the way he and Republicans won it in 2016: voter suppression, gerrymandering, spreading disinformation, openly seeking foreign interference and riling the base into a toxic stew. So things will just get crazier.

But it may be that while they get crazier, Americans in general will say “Enough of the crazy!” and toss the bums out. It could be our way out of our own Brexit. Or at least a move that bring Democrats a new bishop and a knight on the chessboard.

Stay tuned. The game is afoot.

Promises of a Pence pardon is now the key to getting Trump out of office

Maybe it was my last post that did it. After waiting all year for Democrats to open up impeachment hearings over a clearly lawless president, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has finally decided to open impeachment hearings, or rather an impeachment inquiry, which amounts to the same thing.

It sure is curious though. Mueller’s report has been out since March and it documented ten episodes of obstruction of justice by Trump. The report technically wasn’t needed. There was plenty of impeachable conduct prior to its release that was illegal if true, along with a trail of Trump detritus-charged or convicted of crimes committed at Trump’s behest.

Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen is sitting in jail right now for his offense, but his un-indicted co-conspirator “Individual-1” isn’t because, well, he’s the President of the United States, and the U.S. Justice Department has decided justice is deferred for presidents until they are out of office. Impeachment though is a political judgment, not a criminal one. There was no reason to wait other than cowardice, unless you believe in game theory.

Why is it that Trump’s attempt to strong arm Ukraine to help his reelection seems to be the straw that broke the camel’s back? After all, during the campaign Trump invited Russia to hack the Democratic Party, and they thoughtfully obliged. But our political wags didn’t see this offense as impeachable. It’s clear that Trump has crossed many big blue lines. I just thought any obstruction of justice allegation would be a big blue line too.

While no one is breathing a sigh of relief, this is the first truly hopeful sign that Trump won’t finish his term. It suddenly feels different, simply because it’s causing quakes in Congress that weren’t manifested before, mostly among Republicans.

Pelosi probably would not have opened an impeachment inquiry at all had it not been for these whistleblower’s charges, which we can finally read online. I’m convinced though that Trump feels truly victimized. He has no idea that his conduct could be illegal because, well, he is profoundly ignorant on matters of the law and avoids being educated. As far as he is concerned, ignorance is an excuse. Moreover, when his people tried to make him act adult-ish, he fired them. So now he has an administration full of sycophants.

He spent his life breaking the rules and largely getting away with it, so this is normal for him. You can often do that if you can afford to throw teams of lawyers at your problems. It’s the way he has always done business: running them like a criminal syndicate and ripping off anyone foolish enough to partner or work with him. He must have figured Republicans in Congress would keep him from facing any consequences. When Democrats won the House in 2018, that illusion was shattered. But he still has the Senate, its Republican majority and control of the 67 senators he needs to avoid conviction.

Is this still true? The Senate has 53 Republicans so at least 20 would have to be persuaded to convict him for him to go. I certainly thought so in my last post, but political friends are rarely true friends. Basically Trump has no friends. I don’t believe there is one Republican senator that wakes up and thinks, “Gosh, Trump and me have so much in common. I wish I could spend more time with Donald Trump.” He certainly has plenty of sycophants like Lindsey Graham that are ready to kiss up to him. Graham used to hate Trump until it was in his political interest to like him, i.e. when his voters voted for Trump. It’s an open secret that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell dislikes him. He’ll join Trump to advance goals of mutual interest, like getting more conservative jurists on our courts. I don’t think he has ever joined Trump for eighteen holes of golf.

Impeachment and conviction then are ultimately political decisions. That’s how it worked for Richard Nixon. So if a senator up for reelection determines he will pay a political price for not convicting Trump, he might bale on Trump. Trump’s running in 2020 is supposed to help his reelection, not hurt it.

As I noted though, Trump’s approval rating in many red states are tipping negative. Those senators up for reelection that clearly affected by Trump’s unpopularity include Susan Collins (ME), Joanie Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Martha McSally (AZ) and David Purdue (GA). Right there that’s five seats that could go to Democrats, which would give Democrats the majority in, even if Doug Jones (AL) loses.

There are a number of red states where Trump’s net approval is at zero or only a few points above. I am using a Morning Consult Poll to track Trump’s approval by state, which is about a month old. This is potentially a concern for Steve Daines (MT, +0 Trump approval), John Cornyn (TX, +4), Ben Sasse (NE, +2) and Pat Roberts (KA, +4). If Trump turns toxic in these states, rather than riding his coattails, they could be pulled down with him.

There are other Republican senators up for reelection who are unpopular but haven’t gotten the memo. Take Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Just 18% of Kentuckians approve of the job he is doing, so he has less than half the national approval rating of Donald Trump. In a wave election, and with a good Democratic challenger, next year could be his last in the Senate, not to mention as majority leader.

Trump’s impeachment will be the dominant story for months, and probably all of 2020. If it goes to a trial in the Senate, each senator will be making their own political calculation and may decide they have better prospects if they vote to convict him. The Ukraine evidence is damning. There is no way to say it isn’t. All senators can say is that although it’s damning, they won’t convict Trump anyhow.

Still, getting 67 senators to convict is a huge problem. But will a vote ever be taken? Republican consultant Mike Murphy says 30 Republican senators would vote to convict Trump if the vote was secret. It’s not hard to see Mitch McConnell going to the White House to tell Trump that the votes to convict him are there, so he should resign. That might do it. It worked with Richard Nixon. More importantly, for Trump, resignation would be preferable to actual conviction, a distinction Donald Trump’s fragile ego could not endure.

But there’s another reason Trump should prefer to resign. Presumably Trump would require some conditions for his resignation: a promise from Vice President Pence to pardon him for all related crimes. Because what Trump is scared of the most is not his impeachment, or losing his reelection, but going on trial for his crimes. When he is out of office for any reason, at least before 2023, he’s fair game for prosecutors.

If he wins reelection, he’s golden: he can wait out the statute of limitations. But this is a huge and problematic bet for him, particularly with his unfavorables, a recent impeachment dogging him and a possible recession arriving. Doubtless there is some thought that by being exonerated by the Republican Senate he can claim innocence and ride that to a reelection victory. But look at it from Trump’s perspective: do you want to hope you can win reelection despite the unfavorable odds? Or do you want some assurance that you won’t ever go to jail, if you can be assured of a bunch of Pence pardons? Trump is mostly bluster. I think he’ll go with saving his own skin.

Ultimately, he’ll prefer the golden prison of Trump Tower to the bare metal one with cinder blocks in a federal penitentiary.

No bottom for the Republican Party

It looks like I have been giving Republicans too much credit. I assumed there was some core group of Republicans who could agree, “This time Trump has gone too far” and bring him down. Apparently, there is no bottom for the Republican Party.

That’s because I assumed that there were some sane Republicans out there. But it looks like when push comes to shove, sanity takes a back seat to subservience and fealty. Republicans apparently love to take orders. They love authoritarians. I’m guessing it gives them some feeling of comfort that somewhere a Big Daddy is taking care of things. Having decided to get on the Trump train, they can’t seem to find a reason to get off, no matter how surreal and ridiculous it gets.

Signs are pointing to a huge train wreck for Republicans in the 2020 election. Some years back I pointed out that Trump would kill the Republican Party. To severely maim the party, Republicans have to lose both the presidency and the Senate. Barring some massive election fraud, Trump is destined to be defeated in 2020. He’s never polled over 50% and most of the time his approval ratings have been mired in the low 40s or lower. Winning with these sorts of negatives is possible only with massive voter fraud or a third-party candidate that siphons off a lot of Democratic votes. Both the 2000 and the 2016 elections likely would have elected Democratic presidents had it not been for the third-party spoiler effect. It’s not Trump’s base that will win him reelection, but Democratic fragmentation.

Winning the Senate requires flipping three Republican seats, which is a bit of a long shot but not impossible in a wave election. Aside from his base, Trump has managed to piss pretty much everyone off. But even among his base, he is bleeding supporters. White men support him, but according to polling he’s recently lost white women without a college education. Trump is losing farmers from his trade wars, and truckers are seeing major layoffs plus the latest tax law raised their taxes by doing away with a lot of their deductions. Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is deeply loathed in his home state, with only 33% approval. He can’t even be bothered to pump up a pension fund for coal miners. Yes, in deep red Kentucky, McConnell may lose reelection next year.

Rather than face criticism, Trump does the only thing he knows how to do: reshuffle the deck. This means changing the subject, generally by saying things or posting comments on his Twitter feed that are increasingly outrageous. This is effective but it doesn’t actually fix the issues that got him in trouble in the first place.

Moreover, his pattern never varies. When he decided not to put those 25% tariffs on Chinese goods so people could enjoy nice presents under their Christmas tree mostly made in China, then of course when China added new tariffs on U.S. products as they promised it all went out the window. New tariffs were back on and markets plunged about three percent yesterday. They were doing fine until his announcement.

But just when you thought Trump couldn’t possibly get any wackier, he doubles down on the stupid. Just this week Trump:

  • Said he was the Chosen One, implying he was the King of the Jews
  • Said any Jew voting for Democrats was disloyal and un-American because they should put Israel first … uh, what? And how is putting Israel before the United States showing you are an American patriot? Oh wait, because Trump says so. Gotcha.
  • Ordered U.S. companies to leave China, even though he can’t
  • Decided he could issue an executive order to end birth right citizenship, as if he could unilaterally override the 14th Amendment
  • Blamed the chairman of the Federal Reserve for his economic woes because he wouldn’t cut interest rates fast enough, while apparently absolving himself of the blame of nominating Jerome Powell in the first place
  • Said he wanted to buy Greenland and canceled a summit with Denmark, which manages the island, in a huff because they wouldn’t consider it. Actually, Denmark couldn’t even if it wanted to. Residents of Greenland would have to decide. Oh, and he called their female prime minister “nasty”, his word of choice when acting like the obvious misogynist that he is.

We have a president that is, quite frankly, totally nuts and bonkers. Just one of these by a Democratic candidate like Joe Biden would sink their candidacy. But Republicans so far show nothing but increased fealty to a president who by any objective standard is mentally ill and could not be trusted to even competently manage a child’s savings account.

Moreover, a recession is clearly on the way and every action Trump takes seems to be designed to make it worse. It was tariffs that brought us the Great Depression. Doubling down on tariffs simply increases the odds that a recession will turn into a depression. And if there is a recession, there’s not a single adviser to the president who has either the smarts or the wherewithal to help lead the US out of a recession. The closest we have is Jerome Powell, and only because the Fed is independent of the executive and he can’t be fired. When you surround yourself by incompetent sycophants, well, you get incompetent sycophants. Hell of a way to run a “government” … don’t bother to actually govern!

I was thinking yesterday that the tanking stock market might finally be the straw that broke the Republicans’ back. Moneyed capitalists ultimately hold up Republican power. Yesterday, three percent of their wealth vanished because Trump’s ego was hurt. Likely a lot more of it will vanish soon.

The obvious remedy is the 25th Amendment and twisting Vice President Pence’s arms to get a majority of the cabinet to declare our president is too mentally ill to serve. I’ve been waiting more than two years for this intervention, assuming cooler heads in the Republican Party could prevail. While I still hope for it, increasingly it looks like I misjudged the nerve and sobriety of the Republican leadership. They are wholly captured by their captain, and appear ready to go down with his ship.

I really think Nancy Pelosi has this viable “nuclear option”

I had an idea the other day on how to get at least a few things done in our federal government again. It’s going to sound crazy because I don’t think it’s been done before. But I see no reason why it couldn’t be done, if for some reason Nancy Pelosi wants to show she has real balls.

As a preface, let’s recall what the House and the Senate are empowered to do. It would seem that the Senate is the more powerful body, simply because it is empowered to do a lot of things without the consent of the House. For example, the House has no say on what treaties the U.S. signs, or who gets appointed to senior government positions like department secretaries, federal judges or ambassadors. This is because our founding fathers saw the United States as a collection of sovereign states, with Rhode Island having the same stake as California.

What unique powers does the U.S. House of Representative have? Well, they can propose legislation, but so can the Senate. Similar bills that pass both houses of Congress go to a conference committee where both houses haggle out their differences and vote on an identical bill.

But there is one area where the Senate cannot go first: on any bill that appropriates money. The U.S. constitution says funding bills must originate in the House. The Senate can propose amendments to these bills, but they can’t originate one on their own.

Our new progressive House has been passing bills right and left for the Senate to consider. They go to the Senate where Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell makes a show of refusing to take them up. He’s been proudly calling himself “The Grim Reaper.” This includes legislation that would pass easily on a bipartisan basis. One prominent example is legislation forwarded by the House to reimpose FCC net neutrality rules. There is arguably more important bipartisan legislation McConnell simply won’t advance, like protecting our elections from foreign interference or a path to citizenship for so-called “dreamers”.

What Nancy Pelosi could do is simply refuse to forward to the Senate any funding bill for the U.S. government until Mitch McConnell agrees in writing to advance a handful of these bipartisan bills to the Senate floor for an up or down vote.

It’s fair to say that McConnell won’t like this idea at all. But when the legislation is bipartisan it’s a lot harder to say no, particularly when the federal government must be funded. These days, most funding bills are continuing resolutions. These must originate in the House. The House can pass them long before they are needed. Nancy Pelosi though could simply keep them on her desk and refuse to move them to the Senate until she gets a letter in writing from Mitch McConnell that he will move to the floor of the Senate these likely bipartisan bills within a reasonable period of time, say a month.

Yes, Republican senators may start calling her “Shutdown Nancy”. But I bet they would cave because the American people and both parties are by definition in favor of bipartisan legislation. Pelosi and Democrats would look good for at least partially unsticking the levers of governance.

Prove to me I’m wrong, but I believe that the House does have this nuclear option. Given the intransigence in the Senate, I say it’s time to create this new weapon. Once used successfully, the House may find other ways of making government work again.