Biden is being presidential

I’m trying to remember the last time we had a president do something actually presidential … in a major way I mean. I’m not sure it has happened in my living memory, until recently.

Joe Biden is getting us out of Afghanistan, albeit with a large amount of pandemonium and confusion that comes with the decision. He’s proactively doing something no modern president has done. He’s fixing a mistake Bush, Obama and Trump dodged.

Most presidents want the veneer of being presidential, not to demonstrate the real thing. Even Barack Obama knew our presence in Afghanistan was doomed to fail; he just couldn’t pull off what he wanted to do, which was get us out of there entirely. In 2009, he surged troops there but also said he would get us out of in 2014, signifying to the Taliban that they just needed to wait. “Out of there” amounted to leaving a substantial number of troops in the country indefinitely while proclaiming that our war there was over. Like Bush before him, we were going to stand up an independent country that wouldn’t need us forever. And like in Vietnam, his generals and his State Department prettied up the reports to put lipstick on the pig. It was all a house of cards, something Obama probably knew but couldn’t find the strength to do.

Biden became presidential by doing what needed to be done and actually getting us out of there. It’s an effort obviously still underway. It doesn’t appear that he will change his mind and I hope he doesn’t. We’ve needed to be gone for a long time. This was always doomed to be an unwinnable war.

Granted, as Senator after September 11, Biden voted with virtually all of the rest of Congress to effectively wage war against Afghanistan. We were actually at war with those who caused September 11, and at the time al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden were holed up on Afghanistan. In fact what led us to war in Afghanistan was achieved about eighteen months later when bin Laden left Afghanistan and went into hiding in Pakistan. That was the time to get out of the country.

It should be noted that President Bush turned down two opportunities to have the Taliban work as our agents. They were quite willing to turn over bin Laden to us; he just didn’t like their conditions, which would leave them in charge. Instead, he spurned them and we went on another righteous but pointless excursion of nation building. It was window dressing for what we really wanted: an imperialistic state there that we basically controlled. We controlled the government by making it impossible for them to exist without our funding and expertise.

This experiment in nation building was, like most of the others that preceded it, doomed from the start. More than ninety five percent of Afghanistan’s people are illiterate. It’s a third-world country that the U.S. expected could quickly evolve to act like a first-world country. Not surprisingly, it didn’t. We set up a lot of Potemkin cities to provide us with the illusion that Afghanistan could be a democracy, merely to make ourselves feel better.

For all practical purposes though, Afghanistan is not a country. It is too ethnically divided to be one. Multiple states are possible perhaps run by the ethnic minorities in that part of the “country”. Trying to make it one just proved how impossible a task it actually was.

As the saying goes, you got to know when to hold them and know when to fold them. Biden became presidential by folding our hand and acknowledging reality. It was sustained only by spending vast amounts of money and by wearing rose colored glasses.

With the possible exception of Japan, we’ve done a lousy job of nation building. We like the idea of spreading democracy but are inept at doing so. The latest twist is that right here in our country many of our own citizens are working hard to ensure the U.S. becomes an autocracy. Many of Biden’s biggest critics on Afghanistan would be quite happy if our government looked and lot like their new Taliban-run government, just with Americans praying to a different deity.

I had misgivings about our war on terror from the start. I was in a tiny fringe, but it drove me to seek compatriots online on sites like Daily Kos. Everyone else I knew was excited to rally behind President Bush. I was concerned about mission creep and my concerns were justified.

This blog started in December 2002, after September 11. But if you read this post from eighteen years ago, you will read that I was in Washington D.C. with thousands of others protesting what looked like and became our imminent invasion of Iraq. That turned out to be a huge folly too. The lessons of Vietnam remained stuck in my brain at least.

While Vice President, Biden was the dissenting voice urging President Obama to get us out of Afghanistan. All these years later, as president he took the opportunity to do what should have been done more than fifteen years ago. Yes, it’s miserable to many Afghanis and of course we should get out as many interpreters, allies and legitimate refugees there as possible. But out we should get and Biden should stick to his plan. It’s also risky for Joe Biden’s reelection strategy, but it’s what needed to be done. To be presidential, you must put the country’s needs above your own political needs.

The real problem is not in Afghanistan, but in our own country. We have to give up the illusion that the United States’ might can impose order and our will where it cannot. It’s folly to try. We keep making the same mistake over and over again.

But in the minds of too many Americans, this is a delusion they cannot give up. Our country is not all that special and epic mistakes like these simply enforce this impression on the rest of the world, which largely doesn’t buy into our bullshit anyhow.

Trump for … Speaker of the House?

Yes, this is a thing. Certain Republicans want Donald Trump to be the next Speaker of the House! And Trump isn’t saying no way.

I would think that after being president, being Speaker of the House of Representatives would be something of a letdown. The speaker does get security, but hardly the perks of being president of the United States. There is no dedicated DC mansion for the Speaker, no Air Force One, or even Air Force Two or Air Force Three. The Speaker can ask the Air Force if they have a spare jet available if there is some important event they need to attend away from Washington. No guarantee they will get the jet though. When granted, it’s usually to take a high ranking congressional delegation somewhere.

You would think that if Trump wanted to be Speaker he would need to win an election to the House of Representatives. Florida is scheduled to gain a representative as a result of reapportionment. Draw the new districts carefully to create an open seat in West Palm Beach and hope that all the moneyed people there vote for him. It could be done although he could lose such an election.

Fortunately for Trump, he doesn’t have to run for Congress at all. He just has to hope that Republicans retake the House in 2022 and that Republicans then use their majority to make him speaker. It’s never been done before, as previous speakers have always come from existing members of the House. But the U.S. constitution is clear, even if most people haven’t paid attention to this part: “The House of Representatives shall chuse (sic) their Speaker and other Officers.”

It would set up a strange situation because to cast a vote in the House you have to be elected to the House. So Speaker Trump would not be able to cast any votes. In theory, anyone could be Speaker if a majority of the House votes for the person and that includes non-citizens, minors, and, presumably, a cute labradoodle.

What power would Trump have as Speaker? For one thing, if he messes up, he could be easily tossed asunder. Speakers don’t have terms, though they usually serve the two-year term of the Congress. If a speaker falls out of favor, they can be replaced by a majority vote of the members of the House. There’s little likelihood of that given that Republicans are such toadies for the man. It’s easy to predict though that if Trump were elected speaker, he would do just as good a job at it as he did as president. Which means he would royally f*** things up.

There’s not a whole lot that the Speaker actually has to do, which would appeal to Trump. The good thing is that you get to preside over the House, which means you can start and end House sessions. It’s pretty boring stuff though, which is why it is a duty typically delegated out to a speaker tempore, generally some junior members of the House. Listening to all the drivel that amounts to a typical House session is a chore. Trump would not listen and, assuming his Twitter account is restored, would be tweeting from the Speaker’s chair.

The Speaker is the third in the line of succession in the event of the untimely demise of the president and vice president. That would appeal to Trump. The Speaker also has a lot of say on who sits on prominent House committees but also has some curious assignments, like administering the House audio and video broadcast systems. Other than that though, the office’s powers are mostly what you can get away with and no doubt Trump would push the envelope. It’s not hard to see him trying to not advance any government funding bills just because he doesn’t like them.

Frankly, Trump would find the job mostly a bore. Given that he felt the same way about being president, he’d likely be a largely absent speaker. He’s constitutionally unable to focus on anything, but if your goal is to make government less focused, he might excel in that way. It might be fun for him for a month or two. But he would resent the attention given to the President of the United States, whose prestige is something his office could not begin to match.

Hopefully, Democrats will retain the House in the 2022 election and it will be a moot point, at least until 2024. Given Trump’s ego though he’s more likely to make another run for the presidency than want to be speaker in 2025, assuming Republicans then retake the House. Being speaker would garner him some attention, but at best it would be second fiddle attention. Given his ego, it’s easier to see him ultimately figuring the job is beneath him.

And, in fact, he’s simply not up to doing the job in any way that would be seen as even minimally competent. So I’m hoping he won’t even try. If he does try and somehow succeeds, he would become his own worst enemy. Already amnesia is kicking in among the public on his disastrous presidency. A disastrous speakership would help us remember what an utter loser and fool that man has always been.

A real constitutional crisis is well underway

I was hoping Trump’s defeat would lead to the death of the Republican Party. Obviously that didn’t happen. It is fair to say that the Republican Party is basically the Trump Party now, so in that sense it is dead. Ronald Reagan, for example, would not recognize the party, although he did much to put it on its present course. Its mission now is to echo whatever Donald Trump says and to remove if possible the few remaining Republicans who dare to criticize him. It’s unstated but obvious mission is to end democracy in the United States leaving only Republicans in charge.

Since Trump’s defeat, the party’s behavior has been truly appalling. They will leave no stone unturned in their quest to regain power, but it must be on their terms. They have tacitly conceded that they cannot win power fairly, so most of their effort is to ensure it is won unfairly.

Many of the prerequisites have been long in place, in particular the extreme right-wing bent of the federal courts. Most of their focus is on voter suppression of those they don’t want to vote. But many states are passing laws that make it impossible for election officials to do their job. Among these is to charge these officials with felonies if they send out an unsolicited absentee voter application or leave an absentee drop box unguarded. Georgia has given the state legislature permission to remove local election officials, or simply to overturn the results of the popular vote for the presidency if they don’t like the outcome. None of these actions are in the democratic spirit, but are signs of desperation for a party for whom losing power fairly is no longer an option.

January 6 should have been the acme of their awfulness. Now it appears to be the first true skirmish of our next civil war, like lobbing the first cannon ball at Fort Sumner. They appear willing to kill democracy to save it for themselves. Basically, it’s a party of traitors. Now the rest of us have to figure out what to do about it.

Legislatively, the answer is H.R. 1, the For the People Act. It would prohibit exactly the sorts of legislative excesses we are now seeing, including gerrymandering and voter suppression. Getting it enacted into law though is a very tough job for Democrats. It currently would need to pass cloture in the Senate, which means it would require sixty votes to end debate on it and bring it to a vote. With a 50/50 Senate, that won’t happen unless Democrats either find the spine to end the filibuster rule or make an exception in this case. Without it, the likelihood is that Republican election law changes in many states will give the party the wins they need to retake the House in 2022.

These other laws tilt the 2024 presidential election in their favor too, even more than it already is. Assuming President Biden runs for reelection, he would need a commanding victory. So far at least with his popularity at 62%, that at least seems plausible. Of course, a lot can happen in the interim, and you can count on Republicans in Congress to do just this. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has said his focus is just to obstruct every Biden initiative.

None of this matters if you rig the system. If Republicans regain their House majority, the next January 6 (actually January 8, 2025) won’t require an insurrection for Republicans to get a Republican president regardless of the Electoral College vote. They simply have to stand united and refuse to certify the results, which then allows the House to decide who the next president will be. In this scenario, the representatives of each state cast one vote as a bloc, so if a majority of states have a majority of Republicans representing them in the U.S. House of Representatives, they get to overturn the Electoral College and the popular vote.

As for presidential elections in 2028, 2032 etc., simply repeat. This is clearly where the party is going. They don’t intend to ever lose again and if it kills democracy in the process, so be it.

To change the way a president is selected would require a constitutional amendment. Good luck getting that passed by three-quarters of the states. There is some hope if the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact get passed by enough states, but that has stalled in recent years. Perhaps Democrats should focus their effort there.

In short, this is a four-alarm fire for our democracy. If we weren’t in a constitutional crisis before, clearly we are now. Fixing the problem looks increasingly unlikely.

The Trump circus may be over

You wouldn’t know it from all the trepidation from elected Republicans, but it looks like Republicans are starting to move past Donald Trump. In a recent NBC News poll, when Republicans were asked which they supported more, Trump or their party, 44% said Trump and 50% said their party. The Party of Trump seems to be slowly de-Trumpifying.

Why then are Republican Party leaders so scared? It’s likely because Trump is a master bully. However, Trump simply doesn’t have the microphone he used to have. He’s largely banned from social media. He may make an occasional appearance on a conservative talk show, but even Fox News seems to be putting him in their rear view mirror.

Trump also seems to be losing interest in being at the center of attention. The pattern of daily life at Mar-a-Lago must be appealing to him: the daily eighteen holes of golf and his gold-leaf office in what used to be the wedding chapel. In any event, it used to be easy for him to command attention. He had Twitter. He was president. Now he largely stays at Mar-a-Lago and if he has something to say, even his supporters aren’t hearing much about it.

I’ll bet he’s still drinking a lot of Diet Coke, but probably resents having to pay for it. In any event, the nonstop tweeting must have been exhausting, even for Trump. Just because you have a narcissistic personality disorder doesn’t mean it’s an easy condition to deal with. Likely some part of him is glad to no longer be president and to have a much simpler life.

It may also be that Trump is running nervous. He doesn’t have the legal protections he used to. He incited the January 6th Capitol rioters. It would not be too hard a case to prove if a criminal or civil case was made of it. Civil cases are probably coming, but the criminal ones are doubtlessly more worrying. He may be heeding advice from counsel for a change to lie low.

Granted, it sure appears that even though Republicans may be de-Trumpifying, many still believe that his reelection was somehow stolen from him. Republicans in Arizona are trying to get possession of all the votes cast in Maricopa County to have them examined by their own forensics firm with no actual experience in forensics. One hopes saner heads will prevail because once they have access to the ballots with no open auditing of their process, they can be massaged any way that fits Arizona Republicans’ narrative. The votes have already been audited a number of times with no fraud found. They just didn’t give the results Trump and Republicans wanted.

It’s not too hard to figure out. Trump never was a popular president. His approval rating never got above the mid 40s. He left office with 40% approval and his approval level is now in the thirties. Trump’s election was something of a fluke, but four years of Trump never enamored him with the general public. If Trump is serious about running again in 2024, it’s hard to see how he could win without a huge amount of voter disenfranchisement, which Republican legislatures seem all too happy to implement. Trump has branded himself with Americans and they really despise his brand.

Or it could be that Republicans are slowly moving on. That doesn’t mean they haven’t embraced most of Donald Trump’s ideas, but hearing less from Trump means he’s not their constant focus of attention. Voter suppression to win elections is not a great strategy. Also not a great strategy: refusing to wear a mask. It just speeds up the process of reducing the number of Republicans out there.

I find Rep. Lynn Cheney (R-WY) pretty reprehensible, but she is one of the few Republicans in a position of power speaking out against Trump. So far at least she hasn’t lost her position in the Republican House leadership. Her fundraising seems to be steady. Fearlessly speaking out against Trump is risky but has a potential upside in that it distinguishes her in the future as someone willing to tell the truth. She is primed to benefit if Trump’s popularity proves fleeting.

Because even with voter suppression, Republicans who haven’t lost their minds know they don’t have a good hand, and Trump is weighing them down. They can’t do much to appeal to independents while Trump is controlling the party, simply because they don’t have an appealing message to independents, who tend to align more with Democrats and Joe Biden, perhaps in reaction to Trump.

Maybe even most Republicans are tired of the Trump show and want to move on. As one person polled by NBC News put it:

The best thing about Joe Biden (as president) is I don’t have to think about Joe Biden.

Amen, say most Americans, including, I suspect, now even a majority of Republicans.

Republicans are inadvertently voting themselves off the island

Last I heard, today was revolution day, take two. The insurrection of the Capitol on January 6, 2021 failed but at the cost of a half dozen deaths.

Today is the day Trump is finally supposed to become president again somehow, or maybe it’s king. This appear to be the latest conspiracy theory going around the QAnon channels. This may be a crazy threat, but it was enough for the House of Representatives to decide to cancel its session today. Last I heard, the Senate hadn’t succumbed to fear.

Why March 4th? That’s because it was the date originally set for presidential inaugurations. Set at a time when it could take weeks or months to get across the nation, it made sense. The 20th Amendment though changed the date to January 20th. But I guess that’s not constitutional enough for some of these QAnon-ers. So today must be the day a “real” president would take office and that can’t be Joe Biden because Trump said the election was stolen from him. Case closed, or rather these minds closed.

I don’t expect Congress to be overrun today, unlike on January 6th when I did expect this. In fact, I blogged about it before the event. Unlike on January 6th, this time we now have a Congress that realizes these QAnon-ers may be crazy, but they at least now have a track record. Also, we have a new president. The last one helped foment the insurrection itself.

The Capitol is now something of a fortress. Anyhow it’s hard to get into and out of with all the temporary fencing and razor wire. In addition, there is still a National Guard presence at the Capitol; they never quite left. So there’s no ready soft target anymore. There are rumors that date has been moved to March 6th, presumably because it’s two months to the day since the insurrection. But that’s on a Saturday, so it doesn’t bode well for hanging Mike Pence or Nancy Pelosi.

So I’m not losing sleep over what may happen today. But l am pretty disturbed (but not surprised) about how the post-Trump age is turning out. While insurrection may be out for the moment, it’s time for Republicans to dial it up to eleven on gerrymandering and voter suppression. Over three hundred bills have been introduced in state legislatures to make it harder for people, particularly people of color, to vote. There is good evidence that voter suppression tactics are counterproductive to Republican’s aims. For while it may make it harder for people of color to vote, it also makes it harder for rural Republicans to vote too. Many of them will prefer to sit out the next election, especially those less vested in the cult of Donald Trump. Also, many Republicans are leaving the party because of January 6th.

These Republican moves have a feeling of desperation about them. While covid-19 killed a lot of people of color, it also killed a lot of the Republican voting base: older white people, particularly the obese and non-mask wearing types. The party has become a party of White grievance, which is not a great platform for attracting others necessary to keep the party viable. In addition, the party is taking unpopular stances. Not a single House Republican voted for the latest covid-19 bill, even though a majority of Republicans polled support it.

Still, these efforts are enough to worry that our democracy is slipping away. Recent Supreme Court arguments on a case attacking the 1965 Civil Rights Act suggest a majority of the court is priming to make what’s left of the law unconstitutional.

So there is plenty of onus to enact the For the People Act through Congress. This bill would require congressional districts be drawn impartially, set national voting standards and require universal mail in voting. The Act has passed the House and has now moved to the Senate. Currently it would be subject to filibuster, which has many Democrats arguing it’s time to get rid of the filibuster altogether.

It’s a compelling argument, especially now, because if Democrats don’t then these new voting laws and redistricting would tilt the playing field even more toward the advantage of Republicans. It’s hard to understand the hesitancy of some wavering Democratic senators. The filibuster has been chipped away at for more than twenty years. Republicans have shown no hesitancy to chip away at it when they wielded power. Nor has it proven a method for brokering bipartisan compromise. Rather, it’s done just the opposite. It needs to die.

I often wish there were a way to keep people from believing insane stuff. Americans seem to love conspiracy theories but Donald Trump elevated them and made them mainstream. There doesn’t seem to be a way to put this genie back in its bottle. Because Trump supporters are not reality based, real life is bound to disproportionately impact them, as demonstrated by the many covid-19 victims among staunch Trump supporters. There are plenty of Herman Cains out there to serve as examples, but it doesn’t seem to move them back toward sanity.

We learned during CPAC that Donald Trump got covid-19 shots in January while still president. You would think that might wake up some of them to get the vaccine or at least put on a mask. Instead, we get Texas Governor Greg Abbott ending all masking requirements in the state, a stunningly premature act guaranteed to kill off more of his staunchest supporters. This was done probably to draw attention away from his gross mismanagement of Texas’s electricity infrastructure, which resulted in widespread power and water outages during a recent cold snap.

It increasingly looks to me the best case is actually the worst case: Republicans have voted themselves off the island by becoming victims of their own foolishness. We can only hope that those of us who remain are sensible. I know I am. I don’t want to die. But if I die from covid-19 and it’s because of one of these foolhardy people then I will die deservedly a bitter and angry man.

Just our Joe

Joe Biden’s presidency so far is such a contrast from Trump’s. While it should be no surprise, what is a surprise is just how well Joe Biden is filling the role of president. I am starting to see him as the president I always wanted but never quite got. He may well turn out to be a better president than the one he served: Barack Obama.

Biden’s effectiveness may be due to some good fortune. Democrats control Congress, albeit narrowly. We picked up both Georgia Senate seats — quite a surprise for a state that is just turning purple — plus Georgia voters elected both a Black man and a Jew! Barack Obama theoretically had a super majority in the Senate when he took office in 2009. It takes 60 votes to overturn a filibuster. But Al Franken didn’t take office until the summer, as his race was tied up in endless lawsuits. Also, Joe Liebermann was technically an independent as was as likely to vote as a Republican than a Democrat.

Back then there were lots of Blue Dog Democrats in the Senate that made sensible things like Medicare for All impossible despite a supermajority. Today, with a 50-50 senate and Vice President Harris breaking ties, arguably the Senate is more left than it was then, and it’s easier to get things passed. The Democrat’s most conservative member, Joe Manchin (WV) is arguably more to the left than any of the Blue Dog Democrats in 2009. Also, the filibuster has been gravely injured since 2009. There doesn’t appear to be a Democrat in the Senate willing to vote against a covid-19 bill at the price President Biden is asking for: $1.9T or unwilling to use the reconciliation process to do so, which allows spending bills to pass with a simple majority. In the House, Democrats are similarly united, at least so far.

Biden also remembered lessons from 2009 when he was tasked on a rescue bill. Then they went small mostly because they had to, though it muted the recovery and led to a Tea Party upset in the 2010 elections. This time they are going big because they can and because Biden remembered what happened to the party when they didn’t. Polling shows the American people are solidly behind him, with about seventy percent approving of his covid-19 bill. One poll has Joe Biden’s approval rating at 61%, a number that should make Obama jealous. The bill contains just the stuff we really need: stimulus, rent relief, unemployment compensation and money to get inoculations and testing going quickly.

Government is beginning to work again. This is because Biden is not doing stupid stuff, but instead is executing a well thought out plan. He’s got his ducks in a row before taking office and he’s moving forward with all deliberate speed. Unlike Trump, he feels no need to grandstand. He’s happy to delegate work and let others share the credit. We haven’t had a president since Jimmy Carter with his natural sense of modesty. It remains to be seen if Biden can avoid Carter’s mistakes.

Biden promised a cabinet that would look like America, and he more than succeeded. Aside from a Black/Asian vice president, he’s got four women in his official cabinet, one Native American (as Secretary of the Interior!) and three Blacks, including a Black defense secretary. And that doesn’t include the unofficial (non-departmental) appointments which even includes a transgender person. His administration is far more diverse than Obama’s, who seemed more comfortable with largely white males running things. He is systematically empowering women and minorities to key positions across his administration. By golly, his administration does reflect a changing America, and these people will be able to exercise the levers of power, as well as serve a president who doesn’t require that they continually grovel to him.

Biden sees clearly what our real problems are and is moving forward quickly to address them, including climate change. He’s doing his darndest to make government work for people instead of the elite. And he’s back to running a sane foreign policy, which won’t include needlessly stoking conflict with Iran.

Moreover, Biden is a decent guy. He’s more relatable as someone to have a beer with than Barack Obama. He’s a man of true faith, a genuine Christian who usually attends mass weekly, prays daily and keeps a set of rosary beads in his pocket. He doesn’t denigrate anyone and is enthusiastically inclusive toward everyone. Even his barbs against Republicans are relatively few and mild.

How can you hate such a person? You have to gin up fake animosity in order to do so.

Biden reminds me a lot of my father, who died five years ago. My father never was interested in running for public office but like Biden he was one of the few people who called themselves Christian that I felt warranted the label. My father never spoke ill of anyone that I can recall, and was genuinely nice and sincere with everyone. Both he and Biden were just fundamentally nice and decent people. Both are/were grandfathers, and both have/had a natural ability to relate to children as human beings. Biden brings fifty years of public service to his presidency, and unlike many politicians he paid attentions to his mistakes so he could learn from them.

So, while I wanted Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren to be president, I’m not sure they would be as effective at the job as Joe Biden. Biden is a wonderful role model, and an entirely decent man and human being and showing himself to be an unusually competent president.

We’ll see how it goes. Grandfatherly Joe Biden may surprise us and end up as one of our most effective, decent and wholly admirable presidents. So far, it’s looking like he’ll be the best of those I’ve lived through. If so, he is the right person at the right time.

Running down the QAnon rabbit holes

It sucks to be a QAnon believer right now. Their god, Donald J. Trump, let them down. No message went out the day before Inauguration over the Emergency Broadcast System that their Lord and Savior was going to rescue the country from the peril of democracy and that the army was imposing martial law. Somehow, Joe Biden’s inauguration went off without a hitch. In fact, he was sworn in about ten minutes before he was legally the President of the United States. After four years of chaos, Biden seems to be aggressively focused on working for the American people instead raging, golfing and tweeting all day.

A less biased QAnon devotee might simply decide it was all BS, and at least a few of them seem to have sobered up. For most of course what didn’t happen requires recontextualizing and reinterpretation. So that’s mostly what’s going on in QAnon world at the moment. Some have figured out that Trump was never their savior, but that doesn’t mean someone else isn’t waiting in the wings. Maybe it’s Joe Biden.

Others are suffering from a guilt complex. They didn’t try hard enough on January 6 and that’s why it failed. Here’s one way it probably wouldn’t have failed: had Trump actually marched to the Capitol with them (admittedly, it would probably have severely taxed him as he reportedly only took elevators in the White House), perhaps leading the pack, pushing his way through the doors of the Capitol. Imagine how the Capitol Police would have reacted to that? Do they shoot the president? It would be a Storming of the Bastille, just in reverse. That probably would have been the end of our democracy.

But that would have been scary, and Trump is basically a coward. So instead, Trump went inside the White House to watch it on TV and criticize the insurrectionists he urged on for looking low class. And QAnon-ers and other conspiracy minded folk were forced to try to figure out what went wrong. Now Trump is officially an ex-president, stands some low but measurable probability of actually being convicted of impeachment this time, and still hasn’t found a Twitter alternative. No one knows what he’s doing at Mar-a-Lago, and most of us don’t care. It’s a good bet he’s mostly golfing, ranting at staff and drinking Diet Cokes.

For the moment, the whole QAnon movement looks rudderless,, not that there was ever anyone really in charge. Q him(her?)self was always cryptic. Like Batman, he couldn’t give away his secret identity. My theory of the moment is that it was Sheldon Adelson. Like Batman, he has plenty of money and wasn’t afraid to spend it. It’s just that Adelson has been declining for years, like Q, and is now unfortunately deceased.

Or just as likely Q is some troll from the liberal left having some fun. If so, he likely had a drinking problem, as his posts got less frequent and even less coherent with time. Maybe he is the guy that invented BitCoin. At least he knew how to obscure his identity. Or maybe it’s Julian Assange. It was likely someone who knew a thing or two about technology, as it takes a lot of tech smarts to evade detection all this time. Lately though according to reports it seems like Q has gone missing in action, or nearly so.

Wittingly or unwittingly, Q certainly did stir up a crowd, and knew what buttons to press to get his followers riled up. There were probably hundreds of other Qs out there trying something similar, but his was the one to get some traction.

It’s not a hard sell to make. There is always a crowd ready to believe in conspiracy theories, particularly here in the United States. You just don’t expect though that two QAnon supporters would actually get elected to Congress in the last election: Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA) and Laura Boebert (CO). Reportedly, Boebert was giving insurrectionists an inside tour of the Capitol the day before the coup attempt. Followers of Q can develop their own Internet entourage if they can play this crowd. I could be susceptible too, if I started getting thousands of reads and likes per day. Perhaps I could if I could whip up just the right conspiracy meme.

Q though seems to have spawned a lot of hate groups and a lot of organizing on various platforms, most of which are now shutdown. So, Q does seem to be something of a force. President Biden though won’t turn up as Q, as he’s too nice a guy not to mention a technology lightweight. But unlike Trump he’s smart enough to recognize a real national security threat when he sees it. Expect that white nationalist domestic terrorism to be the principle national security threat that he concentrates on during his term. This stuff is wacky and weird, but it’s obviously dangerous enough, as January 6 proved.

Luckily for the FBI, there are plenty of rabbit holes to investigate.

My last post of the Trump presidency … thank goodness!

Donald Trump was probably in our stars and in our national destiny. If we had to have a malignant narcissist for our president, we actually could have done a lot worse. He turned out to be as dumb as dirt, with a great ability to play to a crowd but a complete inability to get anything done.

Granted, he spent four years causing a lot of evil and testing our institutions in a way they have never been tested before. We learned our national ship of state contains some pretty shoddy bulkheads, such as our Justice Department. But under his assault it probably held up better it would have under a more adept dictator wannabee. Still, our ship of state has taken on a lot of water during Trump’s four years, more so than when Barack Obama had to take over after George W. Bush’s presidency.

By almost any standard, the Trump presidency was a disaster. Doing a post mortem of Bush’s two terms, I could only point to one accomplishment of his of any positive note: he did a lot to get anti-viral AIDS drugs where it was needed most: Africa, saving likely millions of lives. Trump’s presidency though doesn’t have any positive accomplishments.

Trump will probably claim his Operation Warp Speed was a success, given the quick development of a number of effective vaccines. But the truth is the government didn’t do much to help besides promising to buy up a lot of the vaccine, making it less risky to develop. It was mainly scientists working around Donald Trump that got it done, many of them outside the United States.

In the meantime, Trump made covid-19 infinitely worse by disdaining masks and sensible strategies to contain the pandemic. Now 400,000 Americans are dead of it and we have the dubious distinction of having the most deaths and highest infection rates of any country on the planet.

Just today Mike Pence tweeted that the Trump Administration was the only modern administration not to get us into a war. That’s debatable, but it depends on what you consider a war. Still, its non-management of the pandemic likely killed 300,000 of us that likely would be alive had Hillary Clinton won the 2016 election. We lost more citizens to covid-19 than we lost soldiers in all of World War II.

The Trump Administration just got worse as it went on. For the first year or so Trump’s worst impulses were restrained by staff, until he fired all of them. It was a government run by tweet, but really it was a government largely in name only. The ship of state was basically in a tempest the last three years. Every time someone left or was fired, their replacement was worse, resulting in some stunningly bad choices, like Bill Barr as Trump’s last Attorney General. Laws and often the courts were generally ignored within the administration. Grifting was in, the Hatch Act was out.

The 2020 presidential election went pretty much the way I predicted. The ensuing chaos reached a crescendo on January 6th with the storming of the Capitol. That was certainly the low mark of the administration and encapsulated everything wrong with Trump and his administration.

Amidst the daily horror though there was often dark humor to be found. In takes a bottom-of-the-barrel administration to give us a press conference at Four Seasons Lawn and Landscape instead of a Four Seasons Hotel. And who will forget a sweating Rudy Giuliani with his hair dye dripping down his sideburns at the RNC press conference?

Most Americans are now ecstatic and relived to put the horrible Trump era behind us. Only, what’s left of America looks little like what preceded this administration. It proved that the United States was a shoddy façade of a democracy that in the end sort of held together mostly due to institutional inertia and amazing incompetence by Trump and his cronies.

My wife spent the last four years mostly depressed and in a shock that won’t go away. I can name her condition: sustained emotional abuse, not inflicted by me, but by Donald Trump and his ilk. Obama got handed a terrible hand in 2009. Biden inherits a much worse country. We’ve been raped, and our abusers were Donald Trump and all but a handful of Republicans.

I do hope the door hits them in the ass as the exit.

Trump’s predictable denouement

What’s been going on this week, much like what happened last Wednesday at the U.S. Capitol, was not too hard to predict. Trump is melting, much like the Wicked Witch of the West in The Wizard of Oz.

What’s strange is that Trump isn’t the first president to suffer this, it’s just that his case is more severe. In the last days of Richard Nixon’s presidency, Nixon was reportedly frequently drunk, talking to a portrait of Abraham Lincoln and at one point was down on his knees with Henry Kissinger praying. Neither were devout, by the way.

Both Nixon and Trump knew they were in over their heads, but reacted in somewhat different ways. In Trump’s case, he has never had to confront his obviously extreme case of malignant narcissism. It’s new to him and he’s taking it very badly. Moreover, the crutches he has depended on to maintain his psyche have been taken away from him: no more Twitter.

So, like with Nixon, Trump is going down hard. He’s unlikely to hit the booze because he’s a teetotaler, but he is reportedly raging and wholly unfocused on his job. The military is ignoring him and it seems to be taking orders from Vice President Pence. Trump has made no plans for a farewell address, which seems out of character for him. It’s hard for me to believe he won’t, but we’ll see.

Mostly, like Nixon, Trump is feeling very much alone with most of his staffers deserting him. He’s being abandoned both metaphorically and literally. And according to reports he trusts no one, not even Pence to pardon him if he were to resign early. This is not too hard to understand since he had never really trusted anyone; he’s always trusted only to his own instincts. And now those have proven catastrophically and undeniably wrong. His cognitive dissonance right now must be off the charts.

In fact, Trump has plenty of company. The 30,000 or so of his supporters that stormed the Capitol last week show there are plenty of people who share his ideas and delusions. Time is proving just how dangerous the attack on the Capitol was, and just how lucky we were that it didn’t turn out a lot worse. The one thing the attackers had going against them was that they weren’t very well organized. There is so much voluminous evidence of their crimes though that it’s only a matter of time before most of them are tracked down and prosecuted.

There is plenty of concern that more attacks are in the offing. But at least at the Capitol it seems unlikely. The National Guard has pretty much occupied the Capitol. Unlike on January 6th, there’s virtually no way a crowd is going to be able to get anywhere near the Capitol. The whole national mall is being shut down as a security precaution. The Joint Chiefs have made it clear that Biden will be inaugurated and they’ll have at least 20,000 troops, plus Capitol and D.C. police to make sure it happens. Any insurrectionist stupid enough to try to confront them is likely to find themselves with a bullet through their head.

It remains to be seen what if any threats happen in and around state capitals. Most states have sufficient National Guard troops to handle anything that comes up. Hopefully most governors will have learned from January 6 and deploy them heavily as a precaution.

As for Trump, his psychological crisis may be a blessing. Not only is he being largely ignored by staff, he seems to be too unfocused to take steps a more rational president in his predicament would take. I suspect he blames his own supporters for failing him on January 6th, thus it is looking less likely that he will try to pardon them en masse. Based on reporting, he does seem to understand that trying to pardon himself is at best a legally dubious proposition. Since he thinks mostly only about himself, in his confused state he may forget or simply decide to issue no more pardons. Here’s hoping.

So, it’s good for our nation if Trump spends his last days sulking, lost and feeling impotent. It’s good if his exit from the presidency looks small and ignoble. I still expect he will slink out of the White House, likely the night before or in the early hours of the 20th. For a showman, I suspect this is one exit he will want done discreetly and away from the cameras.

Where will he go? Mar-a-Lago, if I were to guess, at least in the short term. Scotland won’t have him. If he ultimately flees to Russia it would be fine by me if he stayed there. That would be a punishment as deserving as any we could give him here in a court of law. The less we see and hear of Donald J. Trump after his term expires, the better it will be for our nation. We need to put Trump in the rear-view mirror permanently.

Our new de-facto interim government

Donald Trump is being effectively marginalized and neutered. This is really quite an extraordinary thing in itself. Essentially, the rest of the federal government, including most of Trump’s own administration, is taking him out of the loop and out of the decision-making process. They are not following his orders. There seems to be a tacit agreement that others will muddle through any remaining issues in his administration. If anyone is really in charge in what’s left of the Trump administration, it’s probably Vice President Mike Pence, perhaps now the de-facto acting president.

We got a clue what was going on back on Wednesday during the coup attempt. According to reports, Trump waffled on sending the National Guard to assist. Pence, hiding in the Capitol with the rest of Congress got on the phone with Defense Department officials and convinced them to deploy troops. Later, there was some rumbling from inside the Trump Administration that Trump had in fact ordered these troops in, but that appears to be a face-saving maneuver. I can see why Pence would be ringing them up because his life was in danger too. In effect, Pence took action when Trump wouldn’t and DoD officials accepted his orders. You might say Trump has been unofficially 25th Amendment-ed. And the DoD seems to have followed his orders, not Trump’s.

This is frankly extraordinary and I didn’t see this coming. I don’t think anyone did. Washington’s senior leadership has been doing all sorts of extraordinary things. House speaker Nancy Pelosi also spoke with Acting DoD Secretary and got him to agree that the military would not implement any decision by Trump to use nuclear weapons. Both Pelosi and incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called for Trump to be 25th Amendment-ed. Since that doesn’t seem to be happening, Trump is likely to get impeached a second time by the House. It’s unlikely that the Senate could try Trump for a second time before he leaves office. There’s nothing stopping them after Trump’s term expires though. With Trump no longer president, the Senate might find the two-thirds majority it would need. The benefit of a post-term impeachment conviction: Trump could never run for office again. That might even encourage Ted Cruz to vote for his removal, helping to clear the way for him to run. Other Republican senators are probably considering this tactic too.

A 25th Amendment solution though is highly desirable, if something of a long shot. Aside from removing Trump from power, if done quickly it could have one other major benefit: Trump might not be able to pardon himself, his family and likely all the insurrectionists who stormed the Capitol before he leaves office. But if Trump is really undergoing a silent coup by his own administration, he may not have the means to issue these pardons anyhow. That would take some staff and some lawyers. The staff could refuse to do the paperwork or procrastinate until it becomes moot.

Yesterday Twitter permanently banned Trump from their network. The other major social media platforms have already banned him too, including Facebook and Instagram. YouTube is removing or delisting incendiary Trump videos, including reposts by his supporters. The magic of the private sector is busy marginalizing Trump. He’s no longer profitable and keeping him on their platforms are seen as a liability.

In addition, more Republicans are coming out against him. It’s hardly a stampede, but he has cabinet secretaries resigning left and right, including Betsy DeVos his education secretary and Elaine Chao, his transportation secretary (Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s wife). This will curiously leave career civil servants in charge should any decisions need to be made, in other words: institutionalists.

So far, Trump seems to be mostly holing up in the White House having an existential crisis. He’s sort of conceded the election, but only in the sense that Biden will be assuming office, not that he fairly lost the election. Doubtless he is full of rage. He’ll probably find a new outlet soon, likely Parler, a Facebook-like social media platform that seems to be set up primarily for conservatives. I expect he will give interviews to Fox News, OANN and other extreme right wing media platforms. Trump has proven he doesn’t like not being in the spotlight.

Yesterday I suggested he might flee to Mar-a-Lago. That would be decent of him. It would give them a chance to clean up and disinfect the White House before the Bidens occupy it. If he does though it won’t be because he wants to do something decent.

In any event, our new de-facto interim government is an unexpected and fascinating outcome, something that hopefully will never be replicated, but seems to be the only way to bide time until January 20th. We live in extraordinary times indeed.