The Thinker

Trump is literally losing his mind

I’ve been returning to the original theme of this blog lately: Occam’s Razor. So let’s cut to the chase today: Trump is literally losing his mind.

Let’s stop pretending that Trump is the “very stable genius” that he claims to be. It’s just laughable. Last week’s “summit” in Helsinki with Vladimir Putin should put that to bed. In a press conference after the “summit”, Trump said he could not see how Russia could be responsible for hacking the 2016 elections, despite conclusive evidence from our intelligence community that he was presented with before his inauguration. After all, Putin had told him so very forcefully. Obviously the word of a former KGB agent is much more reliable than the consensus of our entire intelligence community. Back in DC his advisers got him to read a statement saying just the opposite, but he added that it could have been anyone. Last night he was back at it again, so apparently it’s Obama and “Crooked Hillary’s” fault, not the Russians. He called out Obama for not taking action when Obama in fact did take action. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s obstruction though led to a watered down statement prior to the election on Russian meddling instead.

Does he look like a “very stable genius” to you? On this one issue alone, he vacillates back and forth. But of course he does this constantly, making him the most unstable person in the world at the moment. Geniuses of course rarely vacillate, but being very intelligent most are open to changing their minds if the weight of impartial evidence is against them. The only part of “very stable genius” that applies to Trump is the very part. He is very something. Occam’s Razor suggests he is very mentally ill.

Trump is hardly alone there. Mental illness is rife in this country. I noted ten years ago that many very intelligent people I have met struck me as mentally ill. This is in part because intelligence by itself does not mean you won’t suffer mental illness. In Trump’s case though it looks like he is suffering true cognitive decline. Watch videos of Trump from ten or twenty years ago. He was still insufferable, but he could put coherent thoughts together. His vocabulary was much richer. He could express complex thoughts. He could express nuance.

Now his vocabulary sounds like a fourth grader. It’s not news to his staff. They give him briefing books he won’t read. They try to summarize complex topics into a few bullet points, but he still doesn’t absorb them. Heck, he walked into a “summit” with Vladimir Putin without a formal agenda and without aides taking notes. This allowed Putin after the summit to claim that Trump agreed with policies (like Russia’s annexation of Crimea) that he may not have agreed to. Trump’s attention span is very short and he can’t seem to remember anything.

He is placing our country in unique peril. Which means that it’s time for a 25th Amendment remedy. Section 4 of the amendment applies here. It basically puts the onus on Vice President Mike Pence to get a majority of the cabinet members to tell the Senate that Trump is unable to discharge his duties, in this case because of likely mental illness.

Pence of course is his sycophant so this doesn’t look likely, at least in the short term. But that doesn’t mean the conversation should not start in earnest. Yet it seems to be something even Democrats don’t want to say aloud. Certainly they and many Republicans in Congress are already thinking it. Republicans lack the political courage to bring up the topic. Democrats should not.

Americans need to know their president is not mentally ill. The White House tried to dodge this issue with Trump’s last physical. The White House physician Ronnie Jackson gave him the simplest of cognitive tests, which he passed. Jackson has since stepped down as his physician, given his failed nomination as Secretary of Veterans Affairs and allegations of the abusive environment he created within the White House medical staff.

Occam’s Razor is not always right, but it does suggest that the simplest explanation is most likely to be correct. So Democrats should openly express serious concern about Trump’s mental health. This way it at least becomes a legitimate topic of conversation. Ideally those speaking should be key Democrats like Minority Leaders Pelosi and Schumer. They could suggest perhaps three impartial leading psychiatrists give him a battery of evaluative tests and submit a report to Congress. It’s possible but unlikely that Trump will ace them all. In which case the question will be answered: Trump’s increasingly dangerous and bizarre behavior is due to some factors other than mental illness, in which case impeachment and removal is appropriate.

Our operating assumption has always been that our president would be a sane person. This is seriously under question now, particularly when you get tweets from Trump like this latest tirade against Iran:

We can’t start this process soon enough.

 
The Thinker

Occam’s razor makes Trump’s treason look obvious

Back in 2002, when I started this blog, I was looking for a theme. Occam’s Razor obviously came to mind since I thought it would have a largely intellectual bent. It best explained where my head was at, since the principle that the simplest solution was the most likely one is borne out in so many aspects of life. There wouldn’t be many posts on this blog though if I only discussed Occam’s Razor. Today though I return to my original theme to state what looks painfully obvious to me: Occam’s Razor plainly tells us that our president is a traitor.

There are other explanations out there but even for Donald Trump these other explanations look ridiculous. For example, I could go with the solution that he is a reflexive narcissist and such a complete dunderhead that even he has no idea that he is a traitor. I can’t discount this altogether but while Trump is pretty dumb and incredibly self absorbed, he’s not that dumb. If he is, well his narcissistic personality disorder is one for the textbooks.

Yesterday’s widely panned press conference after his two-hour “summit” with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki though should have made even the most partisan Trump supporter reel. Even for them, it should have been one of those “pay no attention to that man behind the curtain” moments. Trump is so eager to please Vladimir Putin that he will take his word that the Russians had nothing to do with trying to influence the 2016 elections and throw the entire U.S. intelligence community under the bus if necessary.

Just late last week, Special Counsel Robert Mueller indicted twelve Russians for hacking into our election systems and political party websites at the behest of the Russian Federation, which is to say at the behest of Vladimir Putin. He identified them by name. A federal grand jury confirmed these indictments. This means in the unlikely event these people come to trial the evidence against them is solid. This evidence was accumulated by our intelligence agencies. Rest assured they have the goods on them and could prove their guilt in a court of law. This is because we have a vast (though at times imperfect) intelligence system that collected voluminous data on them. It’s so voluminous that Putin is likely astonished by its breadth and specificity and is wondering what spies he has in his government.

While these twelve are likely beyond the reach of our government, the same can’t be said about Mariia Butina, a Russian who arrived here a few years ago on a supposedly student visa and who was arrested yesterday for attempting to set up back channels between the Russian Federation and the Trump campaign. It’s not like there is any question about her guilt. She did a great job. Ask Donald Trump Jr. Ask the NRA, which met with her and apparently illegally channeled Russian money into its election fund to elect Trump. At least we have custody of Butina. It’s unlikely she will be a free woman again, at least not for many decades.

When following a trail, sometimes you only have a few breadcrumbs to go on. In the case of Trump’s collusion and treason there are large turds (and scattered Chicken McNugget containers) every ten feet along this trail.

It’s all in plain sight. (“Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing.” Later that very day, the hacking began.) Doubtless Robert Mueller is piecing it all together and I doubt he is breaking a sweat finding the evidence. But also ask yourself: what would you want from a U.S. president if you were Vladimir Putin? Would you want a president that would try to break up NATO as well as the G7? Someone that would start trade wars and call our closest neighbor Canada an enemy? That would okay Russia’s annexation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine? That tacitly supports Russia’s support for Syria? Can you name one thing that Trump has done that Putin would find offensive?

It’s not hard to see how Trump was compromised. We know for a fact at Russian oligarchs kept him in wealth through the Great Recession through loans via Deutsche Bank, facilitated by soon to be former Justice Kennedy’s son. (Curious that he resigned after he had appointed his law clerks for next year.) Trump looks up to his hips in money laundering, mostly by Russian oligarchs paying inflated prices for his condos, likely at the insistence of Putin. No Russian agent had to break a sweat trying to compromise him; the only thing he smells is money and like a bloodhound he follows it with single-minded focus.

Whether explicitly or implicitly, Trump has been compromised and has been used by the Russians for a long time. They simply could not have picked a better Manchurian president. Russian intelligence plays a long game. They baited him decades ago, fed his vanity and ego and played his family like a fiddle. They also played the Republican Party by feeding its obsessions and vanities. We saw this when they changed the party’s platform on Russia and Ukraine. No other explanation comes even close to being plausible.

Republicans are in denial but I’m betting that the astute ones know they are supporting a traitor. Many of them don’t care. They are democratic in name only; and freedom is a principle that only applies to people in their socioeconomic class. Like Trump, most of them love the idea of an authoritarian government, as long as they are in charge and thus feel some kinship with a dictatorial regime. Trump sees Putin and a Russian alliance as part of a great white hope strategy. By aligning with other bigots he can perhaps make America white again and use Russian resources to do it.

The only problem is that he swore to uphold the constitution of the United States and its derived laws. He’s obviously doing the exact opposite. Because of this, he should be impeached and convicted, but this depends on a Republican Party with a spine it no longer possesses. It’s quite possible though (yet still unlikely) that after a disastrous midterm they will finally inhale the smelling salts and throw this bloated orange bastard overboard. After impeachment and removal, he should be tried for being the traitor that he is and has been.

 
The Thinker

Linux Mint may be the Windows killer

I haven’t used the Windows operating system as my principle operating system for ten years. For a decade I have been using an iMac with its MacOS operating system and paying a premium for the privilege. I didn’t mind though. I just couldn’t stand Windows anymore. And since MacOS was basically written on top of UNIX, I could leverage my UNIX skills completely.

Linux Mint (Cinnamon edition)

Linux Mint (Cinnamon edition)

My loathing of Windows though was not enough to keep me from buying a Windows laptop. I don’t use it much and given this I didn’t want to pay the premium for a Mac laptop. I formally left the Windows world about the time I retired in 2014, where using Windows 7 was required. My laptop came with Windows 10. The more I used Windows 10, the more I realized I liked it less than Windows 7. It’s so flashy and so terribly annoying. Amongst its many faults is that it will frequently update itself during booting it up, sometimes taking ten minutes or more before I could actually use it. There’s that and it feels so bloated with all the flashy controls, not to mention all the junk software that came installed.

I’ve made it a goal to move off the Mac when I retire my iMac. The only alternative though seemed to be Windows. I couldn’t see myself going back to that. But maybe there was finally a distribution (“distro”) of Linux for the desktop that was finally mature enough to replace both Windows and MacOS?

This led me to a little project to partition my laptop’s drive so I could at least boot up to another operating system rather than wait for Windows 10 to be usable. In case you haven’t heard, Linux is an operating system. Haven’t heard of it? If you have an Android-based smartphone, you are already using it. Google’s Android operating system is actually a wrapper around a minimized version of Linux. So if you’ve been thinking that Windows was the most popular operating system, you are wrong. It’s really Linux, hidden inside your Android smartphone.

When Google created Android, it realized it was a completely different platform so the old constraints like “can I run Microsoft Office on it?” didn’t apply. They could build it properly and since Linux was already used on devices of all sorts (not to mention servers, where it predominates) they wrote a wrapper around free and open-source Linux and called it Android.

So if you are looking at trends, you are realizing that Linux is taking over. It’s only lagging behind on the desktop. One reason Linux is lagging on the desktop is that there are so many variants (distros) of Linux. I picked one pretty much at random to place on a partition on my laptop: Ubuntu. Ubuntu is nice but it doesn’t behave like Windows. It also doesn’t behave like MacOS. If you are going to move to a Linux desktop, it should at least work similarly to what you are already using.

It didn’t take me more than a week for me to say goodbye to Ubuntu. A friend recommended the Linux Mint distro saying it was written to be Windows-like. So I installed it and took it for a spin.

One thing I noticed right away: Linux Mint booted up fast: really fast, at least compared with Windows 10. Windows 10 gave the illusion that you could use it right away but in fact it sort of hung after you logged in while all sorts of background programs tediously loaded. Mint though was quickly loaded and usable. And it had a Start-like button in the bottom left corner and task bar on the bottom just like Windows. Clicking on the button brought up a Windows-like navigation pane. Nice!

But what was under the hood? Firefox came preinstalled, but also LibreOffice, an open source Office-like set of programs. I quickly learned that only the fussiest people would complain about these programs compared with Microsoft Office because probably less than 2% of us need the most advanced features of Office. LibreOffice is perfectly fine and you have to look hard to figure out what is different.

Pretty much everything I needed was already installed, but there was a Software Manager off the “Start” button that made quick work of installing lots of other useful software. What wasn’t in the Software Manager was often available from various websites. If you download a Debian package (.deb files) from a website, Firefox will recognize it and it is quickly installed. Since there is usually a Debian package for programs written for Linux, this means that few programs Linux programs that are not available for Mint.

While Mint comes with Firefox, if you love Chrome you can download that too. Only it’s not quite Chrome, but Chromium, basically the open-source version of Chrome. Google adds their own proprietary layers on top of Chromium to do things like make it friendlier with its services like GMail and call it Chrome. Since I do IT consulting, I didn’t have problems finding very familiar software I use every day. Filezilla is available for Mint. Since I couldn’t find a Debian package, I had to hunt for a RPM (RedHat Package Manager) package for XAMPP, a program that lets me install a local development environment for the web. This required some “hands on” work from the command prompt to install it, but it was the exception.

Strangely, I hooked my wife, a Windows bigot who spurned my iMac. Her needs are modest: mostly Firefox, Thunderbird for email, VLC for playing videos and Steam for playing games. It turned out there was a Steam engine for Linux that was preinstalled on Mint, as well as Firefox, Thunderbird and VLC. She put it on a rebuilt laptop, throwing away Windows 10 entirely and replacing it with Linux Mint. Tomorrow she is off to Las Vegas to visit friends, and doubtless she will show off her laptop with its Windows-friendly Linux Mint OS on it. She loves it and is amazed by how quickly it boots and is usable.

If you have to run Windows, you can run it virtually inside of Mint using WINE (a Windows emulator) which is also preinstalled. As for replacing my iMac, I don’t think there’s a way to run MacOS virtually inside of Linux. But there are Linux distros that try to emulate the Mac’s user interface. These include Elementary OS, Deepin Linux, Backslash Linux, Gmac Linux and Trenta OS. Of these, Gmac Linux looks the most Mac-like.

About the only software I can’t easily replace is Quicken. I could run it as a service online; I’d just prefer not to trust all my financial data online. Obviously there is some software like Photoshop that is not available for Linux distros, but may be some day. There are some programs that offer 90% of its functionality and are free. Chances are there is an open-source version that’s close enough to those you use everyday on Windows that you won’t mind trading a few differences for the cost (free!)

Playing with Linux Mint though has me thinking that it may kill off Windows. It behaves very similarly, is faster, more nimble, much more stable and doesn’t feel lethargic and bloated like Windows. Yet it’s also so familiar while feeling easier to use. Microsoft may be seeing the beginning of the end of Windows. To compete it may opt to turn Windows into a Linux distro, much like Android became a very unique distro of Linux for handheld devices. Or by being introduced to it through people like my wife, Windows users may discover Linux Mint and make the switch too.

 
The Thinker

Republicans reestablish the patriarchy

For Republicans, Donald Trump’s nomination of Brett Kavanaugh as the justice to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy on the U.S. Supreme Court is like winning the Triple Crown. It’s the greatest news possible for them. This is because with Kennedy’s departure and Kavanaugh’s likely lifetime appointment, Republicans will finally formally control all three branches of government.

The Supreme Court though has always been the one that has mattered the most. It’s just that for decades it has teetered between liberal and conservative justices, with Justice Kennedy usually the one making the final say on controversial issues like gay marriage. Arguably Kennedy was our only truly impartial jurist. That should disappear if Kavanaugh dons those black robes, which means it will be rare at best to get rulings without a Republican take on the law.

Notice I did not say a conservative take on the law, because the so-called conservatives on the court have been anything but that lately, frequently breaking precedence with previous courts. Traditionally, conservatives have respected jurisprudence. Kavanaugh’s record as a judge shows little respect for precedence. He has argued that the president has no checks on his power other than impeachment and removal. This would be news to previous courts such as the one that required President Nixon to turn over tapes to the Watergate special prosecutor. A real conservative should deride any judge that thinks anyone is beyond the law, but that’s what Kavanaugh has argued about the president.

I hesitate to tell our Democratic senators to give up on opposing his nomination. He has at best a 1:10 chance of being rejected. I’d like Democrats to fight dirty because that’s how Republicans won this trifecta. They fought dirty for decades to push their power far beyond the consent of those they govern. This nomination though is vindication for them in a strategy that clearly worked. They out-hustled Democrats by using tactics that were minimally suspect and maximally appalling.

Political gerrymandering is not illegal since the Constitution delegates voting rules to the states, at least those laws not dictated by federal law. The Voting Rights Act was one tool that for decades made it harder but clearly not impossible to disenfranchise voters. All that changed in Shelby v. Holder (2013), which overturned the rule that certain states needed preclearance by the Department of Justice before changing their voting laws. Five grumpy “conservative” justices (Roberts, Scalia, Kennedy, Thomas and Alito) thus cemented voter disenfranchisement as an acceptable political tactic. Within 24 hours of the decision, Alabama announced that it would require photo identification at the polls, a direct result of this decision. Alabama simply could not wait to disenfranchise minority voters.

So not only are we likely to have a true “conservative” court soon, but the patriarchy is fully in charge, which is what really makes them giddy. The five “conservative” justices are all men. These five men will likely rule within the next few years that women no longer have control over their own bodies, when they allow states to outlaw abortions. Twenty-two states have laws in place that will immediately outlaw abortions when it is legal to do so. This strangely includes Massachusetts where I live, which never got around to overturning its law.

You would hope that conservative justices would be pro-freedom, but if you look at their actual rulings, it’s pro-freedom mostly for people a lot like them: white, rich and male. It’s not for women; at least not after Roe v. Wade gets overturned. It’s clearly not for blacks and Hispanics, who must jump through increasingly onerous hoops to vote if they can vote at all. It may not be for gays and transgender Americans, whose recent expanded rights to marry and use bathrooms of their gender are at jeopardy again. Their gay marriage ruling may get overturned since Kennedy is no longer the swing vote.

It’s all pretty bleak unless you are one of these “conservatives” that adhere to two levels of justice: one for people like them and a harsher one for everyone else. For them, this is good and with five “conservatives” on the Supreme Court they lock down the power that matter most to them – the power to make people do what they want – for decades to come.

There are some things that Democrats can try. They can hope to stay united and peel off Republican senators Murkowski and Collins. This probably won’t work, which is why I gave it 1:10 odds. They could refuse to vote on the nomination although it’s unclear if this would change the outcome. They could try to shut down all Senate business until after the midterms when Democrats might control the chamber again. Or they could insist that President Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, first get the vote he was denied in simple fairness.

Of course, it’s fighting dirty that Republicans do best. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s refusal to bring Garland’s nomination up for a vote was very dirty and unprecedented. It would be fitting if Democrats refused to move this nomination until this error is corrected. Republicans though have no conscience. This tactic never bothered them at all. With them, it’s always party before country.

Still, demographics do matter. Our country is coloring up and becoming more liberal and secular every year, in spite of Republican actions to stem this tide. Democrats and independents must crash the gate somehow and regain control despite the wholesale gerrymandering and voter disenfranchisement unleashed by Republicans.

The far right Infowars talk show wacko Alex Jones famously predicted that Democrats would start a new civil war this July 4. Republicans would be wise to remember that the people have a right to revolution to overthrow unjust governments; it’s right there in the Declaration of Independence. Through dirty and undemocratic tactics, Republicans have created a fundamentally unjust government that have disenfranchised large blocks of citizens. These forces cannot be forever bottled up against the consent of the governed.

 
The Thinker

So what’s wrong with democratic socialism?

We are told socialism is bad and un-American, but is capitalism really all that great? Consider how poor a job the free market is doing in providing affordable health care. Before the Affordable Care Act, insurance companies did their best to keep their insured pools as pristine as possible. They had no problems canceling people’s insurance when they judged they were too risky and often when they needed it the most.

In spite of the ACA, which Republicans and Trump are working hard to kill, premiums still are going up. Since this latest tinkering by Trump, they are going up a lot while kicking millions off health insurance. Premiums for 2019 will be announced shortly before the midterm elections and they are expected to rise twenty percent or more. This will likely result in lots of disgruntled voters. Right now, the cost and availability of health care is their number one concern. So I really don’t see why Democrats running on a “Medicare for All” platform should fear the wrath of voters. It’s much more likely they will be cheered on instead.

Ask any senior citizen if they want to give up their Medicare. Even the senior citizen gun nuts will give up their guns if the choice was between giving up guns or Medicare. Medicare is wildly popular, despite its issues. The rest of us simply wonder why if it’s good enough for old folks, we younger and healthier people can’t buy into it.

After all, Medicare takes all comers, at least if you meet the age and eligibility requirements. There are certainly aspects of the program that are annoying and baffling. I have been studying them as my Medicare eligibility looms in a few years. I’m not sure why parts B, C and D can’t come as a general benefit for one premium. I don’t understand why there has to be a donut hole if you use their drug program. In any event, universal health care is not that hard. Every major industrialized country except for ours has done it. Surprisingly, people in these countries are quite happy with their systems overall. So while we are creating Medicare for All, let’s improve the system too.

Of course with our Congress awash in health care money, their real mission seems to be to keep these companies flush with profits. Which is why I and the majority of Americans could really use Medicare for All, which is basically democratic socialism at work. It’s socialist in the sense that the government creates and manages the system. It’s democratic in that we the people get to elect people who will enact such a system.

The private sector has proven not up to the task. That’s why Medicare was created in the first place. The private sector didn’t want anything to do with insuring old people. There was no profit in it so it was either put grandma in the poor house or create a government program to fix the issue. Now health care costs are getting so high for the rest of us that we simply can’t afford it even if we can find insurance.

Republicans don’t get that the government’s purpose is to do things the private sector can’t or won’t but which the public needs. If there were no needs like this, we wouldn’t need government. Private health insurance is a failure. Rather than lowering prices, it raises them for all while kicking millions off health care altogether. Competition between insurers with an even playing field was the basis of the ACA. It helped but it has not proven to be the solution. We need something a whole lot more socialistic.

So sign me up as a Democratic Socialist. There’s no Democratic Socialist party to join, but maybe there will be if the Democratic Party can’t get its act together on these pressing issues. Government exists to help all its citizens and to provide solutions where the free market can’t or won’t affordably or at all. I see this out here in western Massachusetts where I live. Cities out here have high speed Internet, but many in the hill towns don’t. Comcast and the like can’t be bothered. It’s not profitable. No wonder local governments are engaging in some democratic socialism by creating community networks, an effort I am helping lead in my city, and we already have Comcast. (We’ve figured that without Comcast, we could get 1 gigabit per second fiber to the home for a third less than Comcast charges. No wonder Comcast can afford to buy all those arenas.)

Ironically, many of the tenets of Democratic Socialism put Trump in the White House. During the campaign he promised much better health care than we have now for much less. He’s done nothing to implement this promise; in fact he has gone in a completely different direction. Many Obama voters voted for Trump because they thought he could break this gridlock by being different. Obviously they were crassly used, but the idea of having great health care while paying a lot less for it is sound, and is now the number one concern of voters.

Let’s bring in a whole new crew of Democratic Socialists to Congress in the midterms. Hopefully we can replace every Tea Partier elected in 2010 with a Democratic Socialist instead. Let’s let government govern again. Lyndon Johnson was the right leader in the 1960s to bring Medicare to fruition. Medicare for All can be done providing we elect leaders committing to doing the people’s business first.

 
The Thinker

The Justice Kennedy resignation and dialing it up to 11

The retirement of Justice Anthony Kennedy, while not surprising, nonetheless has stirred up a hornet’s nest. Our only swing justice, it means that anyone Trump nominates is very likely to vote reliably conservative. Obviously this has huge implications, the most obvious of which is that Roe v. Wade is now under serious jeopardy. A 5-4 conservative court won’t wait long before accepting a case that will give antiabortionists the win they’ve been craving since 1973. Women are going to become chattel again, at least in some states that have decided that even before three months of pregnancy they don’t have the right to control their own pregnancies.

Such a court though is unlikely to declare that abortion is unconstitutional nationwide. Rather, it will give states permission to outlaw abortion within their boundaries. States like Texas have already made it impractical for most women to get abortions, so in some cases this won’t change too much. Abortion should still be available to those with the means to cross state lines. Of course, the women conservatives most want to disempower are those who are poorest, which should be odd because at the same time they will expect these women to support these children they will be forced to bear with little in the way of government help.

There will be plenty of other ways that a conservative court will make the vast majority of us unhappy. And the conservative majority could easily grow, as its liberal members tend to skew toward the older side. As bad as Kennedy’s retirement is for progressives, it could have been worse. Instead of Kennedy, it could have been Justices Ginsburg (85) or Steven Breyer (79) that opted to retire instead, or simply died in office. In his last year, Justice Kennedy has been no friend of progressives.

The script has been memorized; the die has been cast. We know how the next few months are likely to unfold. Trump will pick some nominee off his ultra conservative list and is likely to do it sooner rather than later. Senate Majority Leader McConnell will bend over backward to move the nomination for a vote ASAP, bypassing the Judiciary Committee if possible. There is a little hope that the Senate will ultimately vote against the nomination. Senator John McCain presumably won’t make it back to Washington to vote one way or the other, and may pass away during the interim. So in theory just one Republican senator breaking ranks could undo the nomination. Senators like Maine’s Susan Collins or Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski are possible swing voters. At best, the Democrats’ odds are 50:50. Trump could dramatically improve his odds by nominating someone just a tad mainstream. In a way, it’s better for Democrats if he doesn’t, providing the nominee ultimately fails to be confirmed.

So everyone is hoping a nomination will fail and that somehow Democrats can hang on through the election and retake the Senate. At best the odds for Democrats is turning the Senate are 50:50 too, so this is quite a long shot as well. If they control the Senate though they definitely control the nomination process as well. That’s their best shot at replacing Kennedy with someone similar to him.

Since McConnell created a new rule that deferred action on President Obama’s nominee, should Democrats regain the Senate then they will be under pressure to get even. One idea going around is that Trump’s nominee should be denied consideration because Trump is under active criminal investigation. If you believe in the Law of Karma, it would be appropriate for a Democratic Senate to refuse to vote on a Supreme Court nomination until the 2020 election. Democrats though aren’t very good at being evil. Republicans though have perfected it.

And that’s what this nomination is all about, really: the culmination of decades of work by Republicans to gain ultimate power while consistently ranking up a minority of votes nationwide. At best their approach has been morally dubious. Republicans have been ruthless, taking a mile when they should have taken an inch. They had no qualms about gerrymandering districts to the extreme and openly suppressing the voting rights of those who are likely to vote against them. Justice Kennedy helped cement these oversized privileges with recent votes on gerrymandering cases that came before the court. Ultimate power though rests not in the presidency or in Congress, but in the courts because of federal judges receive lifetime appointments.

Democrats’ hope of course is for a blue wave this November. Democrats were already fully engaged but this retirement will only add to their animus. It may also bring Republicans out to vote disproportionately too. The case for Democratic control of Congress though only grows as a result of this retirement. The already high stakes have grown even higher.

Our cacophonic political scene already deafening is going to grow even louder as the amp now gets cranked up to 11.

 
The Thinker

Shunning Trump and his supporters is moral and past due

Karma is a bitch, as a few Trump supporters are finding out. Press secretary Sarah Huckabee-Sanders was the latest to discover this when she was asked to leave The Red Hen restaurant in Lexington, Virginia. Its owner, Stephanie Wilkinson, opted to not serve her and her party.

This is a position that would normally upset me. But recently the Supreme Court ruled that a baker could refuse to sell a wedding cake to a gay couple on religious freedom grounds. Based on that unwise precedent, the Red Hen owner should feel no shame throwing out our nation’s press secretary. Maybe it was not because Sanders’s presence impinged on her religious freedom. More likely she was just offended that the woman was publicly promoting the racist agenda of Donald Trump. So karma, otherwise known as “what goes around, comes around”, made itself known to Sanders in a very personal way.

In fact the majority of Americans disapprove of Donald Trump and his immigration policy in particular. We are totally appalled by our openly racist administration and by the wholesale lack of feeling for others unlike themselves that Trump and his cronies gleefully perpetuate.

Unlike many Trump supporters whose hatred of those of us who don’t like him regularly result in nasty or violent actions, virtually none of us anti-Trumpsters have practiced violence against Trump supporters. Trump supporters though seem totally appalled by what they characterize as uncivil behavior from us, even though they dish it out daily. I don’t quite get this in this particular case. Sanders was told to leave but not hissed at. She did not have rotting vegetables thrown at her person or her car. She was not screamed at and called colorful words, at least as far as we can tell. Instead, Stephanie Wilkinson decided to shun her.

Shunning is a nonviolent form of disapproval. Shunning essentially means “you are so far outside the mainstream that I can’t interact with you.” The motivation for shunning is usually pretty obvious. More often, the shunning is for unacceptable reasons. Some would say Sanders’s shunning was unacceptable, but I don’t. But when you represent an administration that chronically lies and refuses to actually follow the law it is supposed to uphold, shunning is about the least you can do to say this sort of behavior is disgusting and beyond the pale. It may not be civil but it’s not illegal.

If Donald Trump doesn’t want to be shunned, he must start acting as a real president, i.e. a civilized human being. To start, he could stop bullying people on Twitter. It’s constant and pathological, which is why I don’t expect it to change. In addition, he could start upholding his oath of office. He swore to defend the Constitution of the United States, which includes apparently pesky provisions like the 5th amendment, which ensures due process for everyone including asylum seekers. If he wants to change the law, he could do it the old fashioned way by building coalitions in Congress. He can’t be bothered because that would require actual work.

Real Americans realize our laws are imperfect but we respect our system of government, our constitution and our laws. If we don’t like them, we use constitutional means to try to change them. Obviously this is quite hard to do at the moment given our gerrymandered congress and state legislatures, but we are still doing this lawfully and openly. We are the true patriots. Trump and his administration prove every day through increasingly egregious actions that they don’t. In fact, our president is so dumb that apparently he thought he could change immigration law through decree.

So thank you Stephanie Wilkinson, who is but the latest case of people taking more aggressive but legal action against Trumpsters for their wholesale flaunting of our norms, laws and constitution. It’s not too hard to predict that there will be a whole lot more of this in the months and years ahead as the normally shy among us begin to feel more empowered, thanks to people like Ms. Wilkinson. If anything, we have bent over backwards to be civil when civility was never returned.

Decent people must and should shun Trumpsters, particularly those like Sanders who actually implement his policies. They should also be publicly shamed. None of this will change their behavior. In fact, it is likely to inflame them. But that’s not the point. The point is for the true moral majority among us to stand up and demonstrate loud and clear that these actions are wholly unacceptable in our democracy. In doing so, we expose the bully for whom he is, help reestablish the norms of civilized behavior and encourage others like us to stand with determination and conviction for our constitution and the rule of law.

 
The Thinker

In the midst of chaos, plenty of reasons to be hopeful about the midterms

In my last post, I intimated that Trump Disorientation Disorder was striking close to home, affecting my wife’s mental health. I’d like to say she’s doing better but at least she’s getting treatment. I doubt she is alone. Every week in this presidency feels like being on a roller coaster in free fall, but some weeks are freakier than others.

This week certainly was one of them. Trump’s cruel policy of separating children from families at the border grew slightly less evil when he decided to rescind this policy, a policy he said could not be rescinded because somehow it was all the Democrats fault. To kind of cap off a freaky week with a bit of humor was this nugget from a Washington Post story. Apparently our “stable genius” president doesn’t know that only Congress can change immigration law. He thought he could do it by decree.

A cascade of awful news is not great politics. Trump apparently thinks that being awful pays political dividends. The dividend he is looking for is to turn out his base in the midterms. He may or may not succeed in doing so. But he can’t win by just turning out his base. He won the presidency by turning out coalitions, including a lot of Obama voters who didn’t like Hillary. Also, a presidential election is much different than a midterm election. In a presidential election, you can win while losing the popular vote, which was his case. In a midterm the playing field is more even. Senators are elected or reelected based on the popular vote. Gerrymandered districts make it harder for incumbents to lose reelection. A recent Supreme Court ruling suggests at least for the moment the court sees no reason to declare these crazily drawn districts illegal. In any event, happy people rarely have motivation to go to the polls, while unhappy people have plenty of incentive.

So the more Trump piles on the unhappiness, the more motivated its victims have to go to the polls. Moreover, Republicans are doubling down on deeply their unpopular policies. Just this week the House narrowly passed a bill that would cut food stamp benefits. It’s unclear if this bill will become law, but we do know that Trump has initiated a wholly unnecessary trade war that’s already affecting blue-collar Trump voters and is likely to affect many more of them as the midterm approaches. Indeed, countries experiencing American sanctions have created targeted sanctions narrowly focused to rile Trump’s prime constituencies.

Republicans in Congress sure have noticed. This is a party of free traders but their complaints to Trump on these tariffs are falling on deaf ears. It’s one thing to target policies affecting people that Republicans don’t like, such as immigrants. It’s another thing entirely for them to affect their own voters.

But it won’t be just them of course. It will be lots of us. Tariffs raise prices while reducing competition. To some extent it’s affected my purchasing decisions too. We are considering adding some solar panels to our system, but panels are now subject to steep tariffs. With no chronic need to buy them, it’s easier to wait until tariffs disappear. The price of panels should drop anyhow but there’s no reason for us to pay a premium now. It’s not good for solar companies however, which are already suffering and shedding jobs. Most of these jobs are steady blue-collar jobs too, likely worked by a lot of people who voted largely for Trump.

If Trump truly wanted to help his base, he would not have put up this tariff in the first place. Solar jobs have been climbing steadily and are almost the ideal blue-collar jobs of the future. As prices decrease, demand for solar will only increase, plus will be replacing a dying coal industry with clean solar power. It’s a no-lose proposition.

This of course is only one of many ways Trump is pissing off his own voters. He and the Republican congress still seem intent on destroying the Affordable Care Act, despite its popularity. He said he was going to replace it with something better that costs less, but hasn’t. So premiums will be on the rise right before the election instead. People are already losing health insurance and rising premiums will price many out of the market too. The lack of a penalty to have health insurance also pushes up premiums. Health care availability and affordability is the top issue right now on voters’ minds. In short, their policy is deeply counterproductive to staying in office.

Trump of course ran on a platform that in many ways sounded quite progressive. He complained about big business and the elites. Once in office though he populated his administration with these very people. Trump’s core voters won’t give up on him, but he will peel away plenty of marginal voters. From special elections over the last two years, it’s clear that voters are voting their pocketbooks, which explains why Democrats have been winning so many of them.

If nothing else, tariffs will have an inflationary effect. We’re likely to see the unemployment rate tick up between now and the election too, most likely due to Trump’s tariffs. Those who are victims may find themselves with less of a safety net to fall back on: less in the way of food stamp benefits and unless their state has expanded Medicaid no health insurance too. These factors will lead to economic uncertainty. It’s hard to say if it will cause a financial crisis before the election, but it certainly might. In any event, despite the tight labor market, most employed Americans have actually lost income during this administration. And since fewer than half of employed Americans have a 401K or own any stocks, they are not profiting from upturns in the stock market.

To me this suggests 2018 will be a wave election that will swing the country decidedly in a blue direction. There are few signs that Republicans can point to that are to their advantage. It’s sure not their immigration policy, which is deeply loathed by all sides. But of course it will be pocketbook issues that will be motivating voters the most, and voters will have plenty of motivation to vote in their best interests.

 
The Thinker

Trump is literally making people sick, including my wife

I call it Trump Disorientation Disorder (TDD), and that’s being kind. Whatever it is, Trump is making people sick. I am not talking about just the children who have fled with their parents to our border hoping to present their case for asylum, only to be cruelly separated from their parents. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) can’t even be bothered to identify the family unit before separating them, making it difficult if not impossible to reunite the family in the future.

Trump is also making my wife sick. It actually started before Trump’s election when my wife had a premonition of his election. I happened to be out of town during the election. When I spoke with her on the phone the next morning she was crying, disoriented, hadn’t slept and could barely function. I got home as soon as the airlines would let me but the truth was that I too was suffering from TDD too. For both of us, after Trump’s election the country we thought we knew was gone with the wind.

Granted that the country we thought we knew was always something of a delusion. Moreover, we both came down with a milder case of TDD in 2000, then known as BDD (Bush Disorientation Disorder). BDD though took a few years to fully settle in, particularly after our disastrous invasion in Iraq. With the election of Barack Obama in 2008 though it seemed that some common sense had returned to our country again.

I think I know why TDD is so bad in my wife. It’s because she came from a broken home and I didn’t. Lately, just hearing stories about these child refugees on our borders being put into what amounts to tent cities and cages have deepened her depression. One way of coping is to get a massage. Her back is a mass of extremely tight muscles. It works for about a week then it invariably comes back. The crazier the news gets, the faster symptoms reappear.

They’ve been coming back quicker since Trump’s new zero-tolerance policy was announced. When she was six or seven, her father abandoned her, leaving it to her mother to raise her and her brother. These news reports have resurfaced very painful memories of being literally kidnapped by her father at this tender age. Fortunately, it didn’t last very long but fifty-plus years later the scars remain and this new policy and graphic images on TV have resurfaced them. She doesn’t need to imagine what these kids have gone through; to some extent she has lived through it herself.

She longs for an ordered, kind and predictable world where our government is benign, not evil. This is one of the reasons in retirement we relocated four hundred miles away to Massachusetts. Here things are better-ordered, less crazy and mostly safe. But the arm of the Trump Administration is very long and even around here with our sensible gun control laws and progressive taxation, undocumented immigrants have been swept up by ICE. Many churches have offered sanctuary to these people, including one right here in our city.

Had she grown up black instead of working class white, perhaps she would be coping better. Black people know systemic racism and discrimination. They obviously don’t like it, but they have gotten used to it and have learned to cope with it. Whites like us have often lived pretty insular lives where you took things for granted, like there would always be a floor beneath which you could not fall. Trump and the Republican Party are doing their damnedest to ensure there is no floor. Your only chance of avoiding misery is by acquiring wealth. Republicans of course make it virtually impossible to climb the financial ladder as they keep removing rungs, not only above you but behind you as well.

Here’s how she spends her days: sleeping in late, moping around, watching videos on YouTube, mostly on the volcanic eruption on the Big Island in Hawai’i. She tries to avoid other news if possible. If I turn on NPR she will often ask me to turn it off. She simply can’t cope with the awfulness in the news. But in truth there is no place for her to hide. She has to confront it because it is everywhere. And Trump’s extreme egomania and the press’s willingness to keep it constantly in our faces make her sicker and more miserable every day. The crazier it gets, the more depressed and anxious she gets.

It’s clear to me though that this new policy on the border has caused her condition to reach a new phase, one she struggles to everyday to get through. Trump’s brash upending of governmental and societal norms has her feeling off kilter every waking hour and inhabits her dreams as well. She showed me this story of a woman who was birthed at home and can’t get the federal government to give her a passport because it won’t recognize her birth certificate. She shows me a story of permanent resident that may be deported to Mexico for an assault he was convicted of in 1990. Even naturalized citizens are sometimes not immune from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) actions. The portrait is one of an administration and an agency wholly out of control willing to break any law they don’t like to see if they can get away with it.

It’s pretty clear where the Trump Administration wants to go: dictatorship. Trump admitted that he wants to govern as a dictator. That congressional Republicans refusal to hold Trump accountable for almost anything indicates that this doomsday scenario is closer than we think.

It’s possible though improbable that this latest policy of separating families at the border and permanently scarring innocent children will be a bridge too far for Trump and his administration. Republicans are beginning to call for a change to this policy but so far Trump is predictably doubling down.

I grant that cruel actions like these are not unknown in our past. During World War II, for example, we placed Japanese Americans in internment camps, a horrible thing to do but at least families were kept intact. We refused to let in Jews who were escaping Nazi Germany. Those Indians we did not inadvertently kill through disease and war we forcefully moved to reservations far away where they struggle to survive to this day. All these actions mirrored what we now see from the Trump Administration: keep America safe for white people, but not safe from crazy and ill-informed white people.

There are times when I wonder if my wife will be a casualty of TDD too. She is already a victim. Perhaps November elections will bring her some relief but everyday she seems to be less functional and inhabiting ever-darker places.

 
The Thinker

Thoughts from belatedly watching the first and most of the second season of Grey’s Anatomy

  • Interns work crazy long hours
  • In spite of working 100+ hours a week, they are all horny toads
  • Doctors may be doctors but they have no qualms about enjoying unprotected sex and getting VD from each other
  • If you get horny at work, grab a doctor or nurse and go into one of the semi-private rooms with bunk beds and get your rocks off. It’s apparently a perk of the job.
  • It’s okay to have an affair with a married man providing you didn’t know he was married. Also, he’s blameless for not telling you he’s married if he caught his wife cheating and moved to the Left Coast (Seattle) to get away from it all.
  • After working 20 hours a day, doctors get plastered at a bar across the street then rise at 5 AM and start it all over again
  • You want to work at Seattle Grace Hospital because they regularly get the most unusual cases, including a two parter I watched yesterday where ammo from a bazooka ended up in a person’s body cavity causing much of the surgical ward to explode
  • Boy, for the most part doctors sure are skinny and attractive and yet oddly you probably have better morals than they do
  • For the most part, doctors and nurses will date/sleep/screw only each other
  • Seattle Grace Hospital is basically General Hospital but it’s for prime time and done more artfully with pretensious dialog by its star at the beginning and end of each show, with rock tunes that meet the theme of each show
  • The only character I identify with is George, the intern with the wild hair and apparently the only one at Seattle Grace with a lick of common sense
  • The only important doctors are the surgeons and apparently they are the only ones you need to run a hospital
  • Unlike, say, “Scrubs”, at Seattle Grace for the most part the minutia of worrying about things like “am I insured” never come up, so you want to go there if you don’t have health insurance, plus you get the top docs

If this sounds like your cup o’ tea, if you missed the series you can catch it on Netflix.

 

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