Republicans are inadvertently voting themselves off the island

Last I heard, today was revolution day, take two. The insurrection of the Capitol on January 6, 2021 failed but at the cost of a half dozen deaths.

Today is the day Trump is finally supposed to become president again somehow, or maybe it’s king. This appear to be the latest conspiracy theory going around the QAnon channels. This may be a crazy threat, but it was enough for the House of Representatives to decide to cancel its session today. Last I heard, the Senate hadn’t succumbed to fear.

Why March 4th? That’s because it was the date originally set for presidential inaugurations. Set at a time when it could take weeks or months to get across the nation, it made sense. The 20th Amendment though changed the date to January 20th. But I guess that’s not constitutional enough for some of these QAnon-ers. So today must be the day a “real” president would take office and that can’t be Joe Biden because Trump said the election was stolen from him. Case closed, or rather these minds closed.

I don’t expect Congress to be overrun today, unlike on January 6th when I did expect this. In fact, I blogged about it before the event. Unlike on January 6th, this time we now have a Congress that realizes these QAnon-ers may be crazy, but they at least now have a track record. Also, we have a new president. The last one helped foment the insurrection itself.

The Capitol is now something of a fortress. Anyhow it’s hard to get into and out of with all the temporary fencing and razor wire. In addition, there is still a National Guard presence at the Capitol; they never quite left. So there’s no ready soft target anymore. There are rumors that date has been moved to March 6th, presumably because it’s two months to the day since the insurrection. But that’s on a Saturday, so it doesn’t bode well for hanging Mike Pence or Nancy Pelosi.

So I’m not losing sleep over what may happen today. But l am pretty disturbed (but not surprised) about how the post-Trump age is turning out. While insurrection may be out for the moment, it’s time for Republicans to dial it up to eleven on gerrymandering and voter suppression. Over three hundred bills have been introduced in state legislatures to make it harder for people, particularly people of color, to vote. There is good evidence that voter suppression tactics are counterproductive to Republican’s aims. For while it may make it harder for people of color to vote, it also makes it harder for rural Republicans to vote too. Many of them will prefer to sit out the next election, especially those less vested in the cult of Donald Trump. Also, many Republicans are leaving the party because of January 6th.

These Republican moves have a feeling of desperation about them. While covid-19 killed a lot of people of color, it also killed a lot of the Republican voting base: older white people, particularly the obese and non-mask wearing types. The party has become a party of White grievance, which is not a great platform for attracting others necessary to keep the party viable. In addition, the party is taking unpopular stances. Not a single House Republican voted for the latest covid-19 bill, even though a majority of Republicans polled support it.

Still, these efforts are enough to worry that our democracy is slipping away. Recent Supreme Court arguments on a case attacking the 1965 Civil Rights Act suggest a majority of the court is priming to make what’s left of the law unconstitutional.

So there is plenty of onus to enact the For the People Act through Congress. This bill would require congressional districts be drawn impartially, set national voting standards and require universal mail in voting. The Act has passed the House and has now moved to the Senate. Currently it would be subject to filibuster, which has many Democrats arguing it’s time to get rid of the filibuster altogether.

It’s a compelling argument, especially now, because if Democrats don’t then these new voting laws and redistricting would tilt the playing field even more toward the advantage of Republicans. It’s hard to understand the hesitancy of some wavering Democratic senators. The filibuster has been chipped away at for more than twenty years. Republicans have shown no hesitancy to chip away at it when they wielded power. Nor has it proven a method for brokering bipartisan compromise. Rather, it’s done just the opposite. It needs to die.

I often wish there were a way to keep people from believing insane stuff. Americans seem to love conspiracy theories but Donald Trump elevated them and made them mainstream. There doesn’t seem to be a way to put this genie back in its bottle. Because Trump supporters are not reality based, real life is bound to disproportionately impact them, as demonstrated by the many covid-19 victims among staunch Trump supporters. There are plenty of Herman Cains out there to serve as examples, but it doesn’t seem to move them back toward sanity.

We learned during CPAC that Donald Trump got covid-19 shots in January while still president. You would think that might wake up some of them to get the vaccine or at least put on a mask. Instead, we get Texas Governor Greg Abbott ending all masking requirements in the state, a stunningly premature act guaranteed to kill off more of his staunchest supporters. This was done probably to draw attention away from his gross mismanagement of Texas’s electricity infrastructure, which resulted in widespread power and water outages during a recent cold snap.

It increasingly looks to me the best case is actually the worst case: Republicans have voted themselves off the island by becoming victims of their own foolishness. We can only hope that those of us who remain are sensible. I know I am. I don’t want to die. But if I die from covid-19 and it’s because of one of these foolhardy people then I will die deservedly a bitter and angry man.

Two practical suggestions to meaningfully address racism

One of the few good things about 2020 was that Black Lives Matter officially became a thing. It had been a thing for years, but it seemed in 2020 that White Americans finally decided it should be a thing they cared about. Many of us showed up for Black Lives Matter protests. We helped put a somewhat White face on a problem that ordinarily attracts mostly protestors of color.

2020 was also something of a wakeup call for me. Like most White Americans, I kind of slept through my own White privilege. Over sixty plus years, I think I’ve been pulled over by a cop four times. Once I got a ticket for not fully stopping at a red light. Once I was gently warned that my headlights weren’t on after I pulled out of an underground theater parking lot. Once I was ordered to pull over because I didn’t know that in my state if a cop car is on the shoulder you have to move to the left lane (they were just running an outreach campaign). And once I was told, almost apologetically, that I had a brake light out. In that instance no ticket was written. I never went to jail and at most I paid $75 for a ticket. I’m sure this contrasts dramatically with non-White Americans out there for whom having a police car with its lights on pulling them over is more routine than not.

Most of us don’t want to be racists, and even most racists will claim they are not racists. But most of us White Americans probably are at least subconsciously racist to some extent. I grew up with no memory of even seeing a Black American until I was in my teens. I’d like to say I exhibited no racism when I finally started to interact with Black people, but the truth was I felt awkward feeling awkward. I was the same way with a gay cousin who liked to hit on me. I didn’t know how to react so I reacted awkwardly and warily. It is this newness of being in what appears to be a new and uncertain environment that I think is the cause of implicit racism and homophobia too.

Thankfully, life broadened me. It brought me to the Washington D.C. area. When you are inundated with people of color every day, soon you become wholly inured to it. You realize quickly that there’s very little different about you and them. One of the weirdest things about moving in retirement was to return to a place that was much whiter than the place I left. I didn’t think about it at the time. Despite living in a liberal area, it’s hardly diverse and is about 85% white. Still, in the five years we’ve been here it’s hard not to notice that the place is coloring up.

I’ve come to acknowledge that I carry some implicit racial bias. The question is whether I choose to do something more than attend occasional Black Lives Matter rallies and maybe put a BLM sign on my yard. My life is still pretty insular. Most of my friends are White. Most of the people I see and interact with are White too. How does a White guy like me make friends with more people of color? If I truly care about addressing racism, how can I tangibly make a difference? Showing up at a rally is nice, but I’m just one in crowd.

A couple ideas have come to mind. First, use what I know to help people of color. What I know is IT: Information Technology. I’d like to say it made me rich, but I’m not rich in the conventional sense, just rich in a general sense. And being retired, I’ve got time on my hands. There should be people of color around here with a bent toward IT that could use some mentorship. So I have in mind to reach out to the school system and see if I can find pockets of these people and make myself available, likely after the pandemic is behind us. A lot of what I do to make money probably won’t interest a lot of these people, once they see what it involves. But it may interest some of them and it may help them generate the skills and confidence to nurture their talents.

Another one hit me recently: I could be a White guy who volunteers to walk with people of color when they are dealing with power situations. Power is usually controlled by White people. For example, you won’t find too many Black landlords, because fewer Blacks have the assets to acquire property and rent it out. I could simply volunteer to stand next to them when they are in these situations, and use the power of my Whiteness to see if it makes a difference. I have come to believe that this is a real thing. If I stand with a person of color when they petition a landlord or plea for public housing, it is likely that merely standing with them and advocating for them will affect the power dynamic. I’m retired so I have the time. I also have a car so if necessary I could pick them up and take them back to home or work. I can use the implicit power of my skin color so that, at the very least, they are likelier to be treated as kindly as I generally was as I navigated through life.

Perhaps this could become a thing that could go national. Create a website, say bringawhitey.org. It would allow people of color to connect with Whites who want to use our inherent power to mitigate racism. I imagine like any other social media site it would need some reputation management system, so people of color could feel assured their volunteer White person was genuinely antiracist. People could be matched based on location, need and availability. We White people might need some professional training first. We’d probably have to learn how to use our power correctly and be up on what was and wasn’t allowed. There would need to be clear boundaries by all parties. But I am willing to bet that if I walked up to an apartment rental office with a person of color and said, “My friend Brian here is looking to rent an apartment,” it would get a whole different response than if Brian went in by himself. And if I detected some implicit bias and gently called it out, I’m betting it would have a whole lot more effect than if I wasn’t there. There might be an implicit assumption that because I am assumed to be Brian’s friend, that he’s safe somehow.

Some of this is doubtless a gnawing feeling of my unearned privilege that now that I’m fully aware of it I feel needs some redress by me. As a teen I was aware of my implicit racism simply from my feeling of discomfort being around people of color. Even then I was ashamed of it.

Now though I am both aware of it and have spent so much time around people of color that racism makes me viscerally angry. Perhaps steps like these would allow me to move beyond anger and into doing something productive with this anger. It’s likely I’d expand my pool of friends of color in the process.

Don’t mess with Texas. They’re perfectly capable of messing things up for themselves.

I’ve noticed that Republicans, who seem to live primarily in southern latitudes, are happy to dish out criticism of us “libtards”, you know, those of us in blue states. They don’t get much bluer than where I live in Massachusetts. Yes, here the property taxes are high. Our $559,000 house was recently reassessed and our property taxes will soon be close to $10,000 a year. But unlike in Texas, you can’t buy a house in this state where the plumbing lines go along the outer, uninsulated side of the house. We have something called a “building code” around here.

Oh, I’m sure Texas has building codes too, it’s just that they aren’t very particular. It’s not a high bar to build a house to code in Texas, and it keeps the house prices low. It does have some downsides, such as in the recent arctic blast to hit the state. Pipes are freezing statewide, even down along the Mexican border. Electricity supply can’t keep up with demand on the Texas grid, leading to widespread blackouts and deathly cold. Texas’s electricity grid is cut off from the other states. This is very much in the spirit of “Don’t mess with Texas”.

The mayor of Colorado City, Texas told his constituents that no one owes them anything and they are just looking for handouts. He has since resigned. We may be paying nearly $10,000 a year in property taxes but I’m confident the gas heat and electricity will stay on around here. We have public service commissions that perform oversight to make sure these things don’t occur. There aren’t a huge number of windmills in the state, but unlike those in Texas, those we do have are winterized so they keep turning as long as there is wind. The natural gas pipelines are insulated too.

Of course we get real winter around here, so this wasn’t rocket science. The gas company never considered doing otherwise. In Texas though they opted to hope for the best and to ride out temporary inconveniences, like the dozens of people dead, from this unexpected cold snap.

In fact, they keep upping the building codes around here. In 2015 when our house was built they were already very high. We’ve even got insulation between our interior walls. Now the codes require basements to be insulated as well, no doubt adding a cost to the house. I don’t have to worry much about our pipes freezing. They are easy enough to see running along the walls and ceilings of our basement. The main waterline is at least three feet below the ground where the ground is unlikely to ever freeze. And because we are a newer development, power outages are rare; the power lines run underground.

Unlike in Texas, we don’t see government as the source of evil. We don’t subscribe to the idea that less government means better government. Power is pretty decentralized in this state: cities and towns generally control more than the state. But the state has certain standards. Most of our taxes goes to the City of Northampton, mostly in property taxes. State income taxes actually aren’t too bad. But if you live in Texas where there are no state income taxes, well, you doubtless save a lot of money.

But what do you give up? Apparently you have to worry about shoddy schools, shoddy houses and because you don’t believe in much regulation, a free-for-all energy market very good at maximizing corporate profits but not so good at ensuring service when they are needed the most. We here in the blue states notice that you do demand a bailout from Uncle Sam when a hurricane comes through and repeatedly floods homes constructed in flood zones, while whining about how mismanaged the federal government is. Yes, looking at you Ted Cruz.

Obviously, not all Texans subscribe to the government-is-evil mantra that a majority of voters in the state support (at least those who are not voter suppressed). Like Georgia, Texas is bluing up, just a bit more slowly. This latest real-life lesson in the costs of minimal government might persuade Texans that government is not evil. In fact, it’s necessary. If keeping society functioning with heat, water and electricity is not the job of government, then what you really are left with is anarchy that will sometimes catch up with you.

So while I’m sorry for all the Texans in cold, pain and who will be dealing with burst pipes when the temperatures warm up, I’m not that sorry. Your mindless adherence to the idea that government is the problem … well, that’s your problem. You should expect more from government and like us here in Massachusetts you shouldn’t be that upset when you have to pay for it. It will be just as cold here during this arctic blast, but the lights and heat will stay on.

Just our Joe

Joe Biden’s presidency so far is such a contrast from Trump’s. While it should be no surprise, what is a surprise is just how well Joe Biden is filling the role of president. I am starting to see him as the president I always wanted but never quite got. He may well turn out to be a better president than the one he served: Barack Obama.

Biden’s effectiveness may be due to some good fortune. Democrats control Congress, albeit narrowly. We picked up both Georgia Senate seats — quite a surprise for a state that is just turning purple — plus Georgia voters elected both a Black man and a Jew! Barack Obama theoretically had a super majority in the Senate when he took office in 2009. It takes 60 votes to overturn a filibuster. But Al Franken didn’t take office until the summer, as his race was tied up in endless lawsuits. Also, Joe Liebermann was technically an independent as was as likely to vote as a Republican than a Democrat.

Back then there were lots of Blue Dog Democrats in the Senate that made sensible things like Medicare for All impossible despite a supermajority. Today, with a 50-50 senate and Vice President Harris breaking ties, arguably the Senate is more left than it was then, and it’s easier to get things passed. The Democrat’s most conservative member, Joe Manchin (WV) is arguably more to the left than any of the Blue Dog Democrats in 2009. Also, the filibuster has been gravely injured since 2009. There doesn’t appear to be a Democrat in the Senate willing to vote against a covid-19 bill at the price President Biden is asking for: $1.9T or unwilling to use the reconciliation process to do so, which allows spending bills to pass with a simple majority. In the House, Democrats are similarly united, at least so far.

Biden also remembered lessons from 2009 when he was tasked on a rescue bill. Then they went small mostly because they had to, though it muted the recovery and led to a Tea Party upset in the 2010 elections. This time they are going big because they can and because Biden remembered what happened to the party when they didn’t. Polling shows the American people are solidly behind him, with about seventy percent approving of his covid-19 bill. One poll has Joe Biden’s approval rating at 61%, a number that should make Obama jealous. The bill contains just the stuff we really need: stimulus, rent relief, unemployment compensation and money to get inoculations and testing going quickly.

Government is beginning to work again. This is because Biden is not doing stupid stuff, but instead is executing a well thought out plan. He’s got his ducks in a row before taking office and he’s moving forward with all deliberate speed. Unlike Trump, he feels no need to grandstand. He’s happy to delegate work and let others share the credit. We haven’t had a president since Jimmy Carter with his natural sense of modesty. It remains to be seen if Biden can avoid Carter’s mistakes.

Biden promised a cabinet that would look like America, and he more than succeeded. Aside from a Black/Asian vice president, he’s got four women in his official cabinet, one Native American (as Secretary of the Interior!) and three Blacks, including a Black defense secretary. And that doesn’t include the unofficial (non-departmental) appointments which even includes a transgender person. His administration is far more diverse than Obama’s, who seemed more comfortable with largely white males running things. He is systematically empowering women and minorities to key positions across his administration. By golly, his administration does reflect a changing America, and these people will be able to exercise the levers of power, as well as serve a president who doesn’t require that they continually grovel to him.

Biden sees clearly what our real problems are and is moving forward quickly to address them, including climate change. He’s doing his darndest to make government work for people instead of the elite. And he’s back to running a sane foreign policy, which won’t include needlessly stoking conflict with Iran.

Moreover, Biden is a decent guy. He’s more relatable as someone to have a beer with than Barack Obama. He’s a man of true faith, a genuine Christian who usually attends mass weekly, prays daily and keeps a set of rosary beads in his pocket. He doesn’t denigrate anyone and is enthusiastically inclusive toward everyone. Even his barbs against Republicans are relatively few and mild.

How can you hate such a person? You have to gin up fake animosity in order to do so.

Biden reminds me a lot of my father, who died five years ago. My father never was interested in running for public office but like Biden he was one of the few people who called themselves Christian that I felt warranted the label. My father never spoke ill of anyone that I can recall, and was genuinely nice and sincere with everyone. Both he and Biden were just fundamentally nice and decent people. Both are/were grandfathers, and both have/had a natural ability to relate to children as human beings. Biden brings fifty years of public service to his presidency, and unlike many politicians he paid attentions to his mistakes so he could learn from them.

So, while I wanted Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren to be president, I’m not sure they would be as effective at the job as Joe Biden. Biden is a wonderful role model, and an entirely decent man and human being and showing himself to be an unusually competent president.

We’ll see how it goes. Grandfatherly Joe Biden may surprise us and end up as one of our most effective, decent and wholly admirable presidents. So far, it’s looking like he’ll be the best of those I’ve lived through. If so, he is the right person at the right time.

Running down the QAnon rabbit holes

It sucks to be a QAnon believer right now. Their god, Donald J. Trump, let them down. No message went out the day before Inauguration over the Emergency Broadcast System that their Lord and Savior was going to rescue the country from the peril of democracy and that the army was imposing martial law. Somehow, Joe Biden’s inauguration went off without a hitch. In fact, he was sworn in about ten minutes before he was legally the President of the United States. After four years of chaos, Biden seems to be aggressively focused on working for the American people instead raging, golfing and tweeting all day.

A less biased QAnon devotee might simply decide it was all BS, and at least a few of them seem to have sobered up. For most of course what didn’t happen requires recontextualizing and reinterpretation. So that’s mostly what’s going on in QAnon world at the moment. Some have figured out that Trump was never their savior, but that doesn’t mean someone else isn’t waiting in the wings. Maybe it’s Joe Biden.

Others are suffering from a guilt complex. They didn’t try hard enough on January 6 and that’s why it failed. Here’s one way it probably wouldn’t have failed: had Trump actually marched to the Capitol with them (admittedly, it would probably have severely taxed him as he reportedly only took elevators in the White House), perhaps leading the pack, pushing his way through the doors of the Capitol. Imagine how the Capitol Police would have reacted to that? Do they shoot the president? It would be a Storming of the Bastille, just in reverse. That probably would have been the end of our democracy.

But that would have been scary, and Trump is basically a coward. So instead, Trump went inside the White House to watch it on TV and criticize the insurrectionists he urged on for looking low class. And QAnon-ers and other conspiracy minded folk were forced to try to figure out what went wrong. Now Trump is officially an ex-president, stands some low but measurable probability of actually being convicted of impeachment this time, and still hasn’t found a Twitter alternative. No one knows what he’s doing at Mar-a-Lago, and most of us don’t care. It’s a good bet he’s mostly golfing, ranting at staff and drinking Diet Cokes.

For the moment, the whole QAnon movement looks rudderless,, not that there was ever anyone really in charge. Q him(her?)self was always cryptic. Like Batman, he couldn’t give away his secret identity. My theory of the moment is that it was Sheldon Adelson. Like Batman, he has plenty of money and wasn’t afraid to spend it. It’s just that Adelson has been declining for years, like Q, and is now unfortunately deceased.

Or just as likely Q is some troll from the liberal left having some fun. If so, he likely had a drinking problem, as his posts got less frequent and even less coherent with time. Maybe he is the guy that invented BitCoin. At least he knew how to obscure his identity. Or maybe it’s Julian Assange. It was likely someone who knew a thing or two about technology, as it takes a lot of tech smarts to evade detection all this time. Lately though according to reports it seems like Q has gone missing in action, or nearly so.

Wittingly or unwittingly, Q certainly did stir up a crowd, and knew what buttons to press to get his followers riled up. There were probably hundreds of other Qs out there trying something similar, but his was the one to get some traction.

It’s not a hard sell to make. There is always a crowd ready to believe in conspiracy theories, particularly here in the United States. You just don’t expect though that two QAnon supporters would actually get elected to Congress in the last election: Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA) and Laura Boebert (CO). Reportedly, Boebert was giving insurrectionists an inside tour of the Capitol the day before the coup attempt. Followers of Q can develop their own Internet entourage if they can play this crowd. I could be susceptible too, if I started getting thousands of reads and likes per day. Perhaps I could if I could whip up just the right conspiracy meme.

Q though seems to have spawned a lot of hate groups and a lot of organizing on various platforms, most of which are now shutdown. So, Q does seem to be something of a force. President Biden though won’t turn up as Q, as he’s too nice a guy not to mention a technology lightweight. But unlike Trump he’s smart enough to recognize a real national security threat when he sees it. Expect that white nationalist domestic terrorism to be the principle national security threat that he concentrates on during his term. This stuff is wacky and weird, but it’s obviously dangerous enough, as January 6 proved.

Luckily for the FBI, there are plenty of rabbit holes to investigate.

My last post of the Trump presidency … thank goodness!

Donald Trump was probably in our stars and in our national destiny. If we had to have a malignant narcissist for our president, we actually could have done a lot worse. He turned out to be as dumb as dirt, with a great ability to play to a crowd but a complete inability to get anything done.

Granted, he spent four years causing a lot of evil and testing our institutions in a way they have never been tested before. We learned our national ship of state contains some pretty shoddy bulkheads, such as our Justice Department. But under his assault it probably held up better it would have under a more adept dictator wannabee. Still, our ship of state has taken on a lot of water during Trump’s four years, more so than when Barack Obama had to take over after George W. Bush’s presidency.

By almost any standard, the Trump presidency was a disaster. Doing a post mortem of Bush’s two terms, I could only point to one accomplishment of his of any positive note: he did a lot to get anti-viral AIDS drugs where it was needed most: Africa, saving likely millions of lives. Trump’s presidency though doesn’t have any positive accomplishments.

Trump will probably claim his Operation Warp Speed was a success, given the quick development of a number of effective vaccines. But the truth is the government didn’t do much to help besides promising to buy up a lot of the vaccine, making it less risky to develop. It was mainly scientists working around Donald Trump that got it done, many of them outside the United States.

In the meantime, Trump made covid-19 infinitely worse by disdaining masks and sensible strategies to contain the pandemic. Now 400,000 Americans are dead of it and we have the dubious distinction of having the most deaths and highest infection rates of any country on the planet.

Just today Mike Pence tweeted that the Trump Administration was the only modern administration not to get us into a war. That’s debatable, but it depends on what you consider a war. Still, its non-management of the pandemic likely killed 300,000 of us that likely would be alive had Hillary Clinton won the 2016 election. We lost more citizens to covid-19 than we lost soldiers in all of World War II.

The Trump Administration just got worse as it went on. For the first year or so Trump’s worst impulses were restrained by staff, until he fired all of them. It was a government run by tweet, but really it was a government largely in name only. The ship of state was basically in a tempest the last three years. Every time someone left or was fired, their replacement was worse, resulting in some stunningly bad choices, like Bill Barr as Trump’s last Attorney General. Laws and often the courts were generally ignored within the administration. Grifting was in, the Hatch Act was out.

The 2020 presidential election went pretty much the way I predicted. The ensuing chaos reached a crescendo on January 6th with the storming of the Capitol. That was certainly the low mark of the administration and encapsulated everything wrong with Trump and his administration.

Amidst the daily horror though there was often dark humor to be found. In takes a bottom-of-the-barrel administration to give us a press conference at Four Seasons Lawn and Landscape instead of a Four Seasons Hotel. And who will forget a sweating Rudy Giuliani with his hair dye dripping down his sideburns at the RNC press conference?

Most Americans are now ecstatic and relived to put the horrible Trump era behind us. Only, what’s left of America looks little like what preceded this administration. It proved that the United States was a shoddy façade of a democracy that in the end sort of held together mostly due to institutional inertia and amazing incompetence by Trump and his cronies.

My wife spent the last four years mostly depressed and in a shock that won’t go away. I can name her condition: sustained emotional abuse, not inflicted by me, but by Donald Trump and his ilk. Obama got handed a terrible hand in 2009. Biden inherits a much worse country. We’ve been raped, and our abusers were Donald Trump and all but a handful of Republicans.

I do hope the door hits them in the ass as the exit.

Trump’s predictable denouement

What’s been going on this week, much like what happened last Wednesday at the U.S. Capitol, was not too hard to predict. Trump is melting, much like the Wicked Witch of the West in The Wizard of Oz.

What’s strange is that Trump isn’t the first president to suffer this, it’s just that his case is more severe. In the last days of Richard Nixon’s presidency, Nixon was reportedly frequently drunk, talking to a portrait of Abraham Lincoln and at one point was down on his knees with Henry Kissinger praying. Neither were devout, by the way.

Both Nixon and Trump knew they were in over their heads, but reacted in somewhat different ways. In Trump’s case, he has never had to confront his obviously extreme case of malignant narcissism. It’s new to him and he’s taking it very badly. Moreover, the crutches he has depended on to maintain his psyche have been taken away from him: no more Twitter.

So, like with Nixon, Trump is going down hard. He’s unlikely to hit the booze because he’s a teetotaler, but he is reportedly raging and wholly unfocused on his job. The military is ignoring him and it seems to be taking orders from Vice President Pence. Trump has made no plans for a farewell address, which seems out of character for him. It’s hard for me to believe he won’t, but we’ll see.

Mostly, like Nixon, Trump is feeling very much alone with most of his staffers deserting him. He’s being abandoned both metaphorically and literally. And according to reports he trusts no one, not even Pence to pardon him if he were to resign early. This is not too hard to understand since he had never really trusted anyone; he’s always trusted only to his own instincts. And now those have proven catastrophically and undeniably wrong. His cognitive dissonance right now must be off the charts.

In fact, Trump has plenty of company. The 30,000 or so of his supporters that stormed the Capitol last week show there are plenty of people who share his ideas and delusions. Time is proving just how dangerous the attack on the Capitol was, and just how lucky we were that it didn’t turn out a lot worse. The one thing the attackers had going against them was that they weren’t very well organized. There is so much voluminous evidence of their crimes though that it’s only a matter of time before most of them are tracked down and prosecuted.

There is plenty of concern that more attacks are in the offing. But at least at the Capitol it seems unlikely. The National Guard has pretty much occupied the Capitol. Unlike on January 6th, there’s virtually no way a crowd is going to be able to get anywhere near the Capitol. The whole national mall is being shut down as a security precaution. The Joint Chiefs have made it clear that Biden will be inaugurated and they’ll have at least 20,000 troops, plus Capitol and D.C. police to make sure it happens. Any insurrectionist stupid enough to try to confront them is likely to find themselves with a bullet through their head.

It remains to be seen what if any threats happen in and around state capitals. Most states have sufficient National Guard troops to handle anything that comes up. Hopefully most governors will have learned from January 6 and deploy them heavily as a precaution.

As for Trump, his psychological crisis may be a blessing. Not only is he being largely ignored by staff, he seems to be too unfocused to take steps a more rational president in his predicament would take. I suspect he blames his own supporters for failing him on January 6th, thus it is looking less likely that he will try to pardon them en masse. Based on reporting, he does seem to understand that trying to pardon himself is at best a legally dubious proposition. Since he thinks mostly only about himself, in his confused state he may forget or simply decide to issue no more pardons. Here’s hoping.

So, it’s good for our nation if Trump spends his last days sulking, lost and feeling impotent. It’s good if his exit from the presidency looks small and ignoble. I still expect he will slink out of the White House, likely the night before or in the early hours of the 20th. For a showman, I suspect this is one exit he will want done discreetly and away from the cameras.

Where will he go? Mar-a-Lago, if I were to guess, at least in the short term. Scotland won’t have him. If he ultimately flees to Russia it would be fine by me if he stayed there. That would be a punishment as deserving as any we could give him here in a court of law. The less we see and hear of Donald J. Trump after his term expires, the better it will be for our nation. We need to put Trump in the rear-view mirror permanently.

Our new de-facto interim government

Donald Trump is being effectively marginalized and neutered. This is really quite an extraordinary thing in itself. Essentially, the rest of the federal government, including most of Trump’s own administration, is taking him out of the loop and out of the decision-making process. They are not following his orders. There seems to be a tacit agreement that others will muddle through any remaining issues in his administration. If anyone is really in charge in what’s left of the Trump administration, it’s probably Vice President Mike Pence, perhaps now the de-facto acting president.

We got a clue what was going on back on Wednesday during the coup attempt. According to reports, Trump waffled on sending the National Guard to assist. Pence, hiding in the Capitol with the rest of Congress got on the phone with Defense Department officials and convinced them to deploy troops. Later, there was some rumbling from inside the Trump Administration that Trump had in fact ordered these troops in, but that appears to be a face-saving maneuver. I can see why Pence would be ringing them up because his life was in danger too. In effect, Pence took action when Trump wouldn’t and DoD officials accepted his orders. You might say Trump has been unofficially 25th Amendment-ed. And the DoD seems to have followed his orders, not Trump’s.

This is frankly extraordinary and I didn’t see this coming. I don’t think anyone did. Washington’s senior leadership has been doing all sorts of extraordinary things. House speaker Nancy Pelosi also spoke with Acting DoD Secretary and got him to agree that the military would not implement any decision by Trump to use nuclear weapons. Both Pelosi and incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called for Trump to be 25th Amendment-ed. Since that doesn’t seem to be happening, Trump is likely to get impeached a second time by the House. It’s unlikely that the Senate could try Trump for a second time before he leaves office. There’s nothing stopping them after Trump’s term expires though. With Trump no longer president, the Senate might find the two-thirds majority it would need. The benefit of a post-term impeachment conviction: Trump could never run for office again. That might even encourage Ted Cruz to vote for his removal, helping to clear the way for him to run. Other Republican senators are probably considering this tactic too.

A 25th Amendment solution though is highly desirable, if something of a long shot. Aside from removing Trump from power, if done quickly it could have one other major benefit: Trump might not be able to pardon himself, his family and likely all the insurrectionists who stormed the Capitol before he leaves office. But if Trump is really undergoing a silent coup by his own administration, he may not have the means to issue these pardons anyhow. That would take some staff and some lawyers. The staff could refuse to do the paperwork or procrastinate until it becomes moot.

Yesterday Twitter permanently banned Trump from their network. The other major social media platforms have already banned him too, including Facebook and Instagram. YouTube is removing or delisting incendiary Trump videos, including reposts by his supporters. The magic of the private sector is busy marginalizing Trump. He’s no longer profitable and keeping him on their platforms are seen as a liability.

In addition, more Republicans are coming out against him. It’s hardly a stampede, but he has cabinet secretaries resigning left and right, including Betsy DeVos his education secretary and Elaine Chao, his transportation secretary (Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s wife). This will curiously leave career civil servants in charge should any decisions need to be made, in other words: institutionalists.

So far, Trump seems to be mostly holing up in the White House having an existential crisis. He’s sort of conceded the election, but only in the sense that Biden will be assuming office, not that he fairly lost the election. Doubtless he is full of rage. He’ll probably find a new outlet soon, likely Parler, a Facebook-like social media platform that seems to be set up primarily for conservatives. I expect he will give interviews to Fox News, OANN and other extreme right wing media platforms. Trump has proven he doesn’t like not being in the spotlight.

Yesterday I suggested he might flee to Mar-a-Lago. That would be decent of him. It would give them a chance to clean up and disinfect the White House before the Bidens occupy it. If he does though it won’t be because he wants to do something decent.

In any event, our new de-facto interim government is an unexpected and fascinating outcome, something that hopefully will never be replicated, but seems to be the only way to bide time until January 20th. We live in extraordinary times indeed.

Hold onto your hats on January 6th

It sure would be nice if it were January 20th already. Unfortunately, we still have more than two weeks to go. To no one’s surprise, Trump isn’t going quietly. In the interim he plans to make things as dangerous as possible for our country. It’s also likely that once out of office he’ll spend most of his time trying to undermine the Biden Administration, aided and abetted by plenty in Congress who in the meantime will make one last quixotic attempt to overturn the election on Wednesday.

Wednesday is when Congress counts the electoral votes submitted by the states. Like on the day electoral votes were cast in state capitals, Trump plans to make mischief. He is urging his supporters to protest in Washington, protests that have effectively carried on for about a month as his supporters seem to have taken up long-term residence at the Hotel Harrington. Members of his party in both the House and Senate are planning to object to the votes submitted by certain states that gave Biden a majority in the Electoral College. They are alleging numerous ballot fraud issues, none of which have passed the muster of state or federal judges or various recounts (three times in parts of Georgia) where the alleged voter fraud took place.

Since the House will be controlled by Democrats, it won’t go anywhere but the process may take a couple of days to play out, since votes for each state can be challenged and each challenge requires two-hour meetings by both houses of Congress. You can bet Trump is working the phones to get more Republican senators to fall in line in this doomed effort. All this plus the planned protests on Wednesday raises the likelihood of violent protests.

The Capitol is a very secure building but even it is under potential threat. I haven’t read any news stories about what if anything is being done to add extra security to the Capitol. I sure hope it’s quietly being done. Presumably all the Capitol Police will be there. If I were DC Mayor Muriel Bowser, I’d be quietly putting all DC police on this beat too, and have DC’s National Guard ready and waiting. The game here might be to shut down Congress so no counting can finish. It technically wouldn’t keep Trump in power as his term expires at noon on the 20th and would leave Nancy Pelosi as the acting President. But it could spark the large-scale civil unrest that many groups like the Proud Boys seem to want to unleash. A government in anarchy is at least not one controlled by Democrats, or anyone else for that matter.

We’ll see how much of this worst-case scenario unfolds, but it’s all because Donald Trump is incapable of accepting his defeat. And that’s because he suffers from malignant narcissism, a condition that is seemingly shared by many of his supporters. With a few exceptions like Rep. Louie Gohmert of Texas, those supporting Trump in Congress know their protests are pointless and won’t change the outcome. This is just a flanking maneuver for the one thing they truly care about: being unchallenged in a 2022 primary.

So, my worst-case scenario seems to be happening much later than sooner, but is underway nonetheless. The process is designed to sort through these issues much earlier, which is in fact what occurred. It was just that Trump was incapable of accepting the results.

What if anything should be done in response? What’s playing out, on a macro level, is really the reaction of Republicans realizing they are moving toward a permanent minority status. Unable to broaden their coalition because compromising their principles is a non-starter, all they have left that they haven’t tried is to unconstitutionally wrest power away from those to whom voters have granted it. In other words: to break the law and perhaps start a new civil war in the process. The mere idea of permanent minority status is unacceptable and it appears any means necessary to keep it from happening is okay with them. As for Trump, it’s all about protecting his fragile ego which can’t abide with the shame of being certified a loser.

But things may get worse before Congress counts the electoral votes. If voters in Georgia elect two Democratic senators on Tuesday, control of Congress passes narrowly to the Democrats (with a split Senate and with Vice President Elect Kamala Harris the tie breaker), effectively one-party government. A lot of this may be self-inflicted. Trump himself has already suggested these Georgia runoff election outcomes will be illegitimate. Many of his minions have urged Republicans not to vote in the election, apparently blaming Trump’s baseless voter fraud claims, making this scenario all the more likely.

The uneasy and tacit rules of governing seem to be becoming unglued. Democracy itself appears to be breaking down in the United States. All this feeds the outcome that Trump supporters seem to clearly want. In other words, chaos is not a bug in their system, it’s now a feature. Even if they don’t prevail this time, by breaking precedents they are creating a future where they expect to get their way regardless of how the voters vote.

This should be and is terrifying. Hold onto your hats.

Biden’s most important task

So I was listening to this podcast, talking about the rise of neoliberalism and opining that it is likely in its last gasps. A poorly named philosophy, neoliberalism is actually better named neoconservatism. It’s the idea that freedom comes through markets and that the more we orient society to enable entrepreneurs and free markets and clip the government’s wings, the more everyone’s boat rises and freedoms expand.

The opposite of course has happened. Income inequality is now at record levels. What new growth there is goes almost entirely to the rich. The only mystery is why it was hung on to for so long. It hung on in part because there are a lot of shysters out there. Its most recent example is Donald Trump, a so-called populist who pulled the wool over the eyes of his supporters so well that they still support him, even though he has systematically tried to impoverish them.

Remember the Trump who was going to do all these magical things like give us something better than cheaper than Obamacare, and almost instantly, and was going to bring back jobs to the United States? You got to hand it to Trump, though. Right now, he is still picking the pockets of his supporters, still getting them to send his campaign money, even though he has lost the election. Most of these donations goes to an entity which allows him to channel it right back into his pocket. These loonies though are still smitten with Trump, still convinced our election was rigged (but only against Trump, apparently) and have no problem with totalitarianism to keep Trump in power. If he somehow succeeded though, based on his track record, he would just find more ways to fleece them and the rest of us. That’s his biggest skill.

In 2016 Trump sounded a lot like Bernie Sanders; it’s just that Sanders was the true populist. People followed Trump because he told them stuff they wanted to hear. You know his base wants a lot of progressive policies; after all, Florida voted for him while also approving a $15/hour minimum wage. Many progressive ideas are popular with Trump supporters. They just get lost in supporting class warfare. They can’t seem to figure out that by supporting it they are undermining their own prosperity.

Anyhow, if this podcast is true, neoliberalism is in its last days. The reaction to Trump’s defeat is strong evidence that his supporters are coming apart at the seams because they can’t get their way. Is a new, more progressive era at hand?

I’m hoping it is and there are certainly signs that time should prove this true. The hard part is getting from here to there. One constant has been the obstinance from red states, who seem to be all for white supremacy and income inequality. It’s just that red states are becoming fewer. Georgia is looking purple and may start to look blue if both Democrats win their runoff races next month. There’s more early voting in Georgia for these races today than there was before the presidential election. Polls proved unreliable in the November election, but what polls there are in the Georgia Senate race suggest Democrats Warnock and Ossoff have slim leads.

I spent more than thirty years in Virginia and watched it moved from red to purple to consistently blue. Arizona is definitely looking like a purple state. North Carolina and Wisconsin seem to be becoming purple too. You have to look hard for a state that is bucking the trend. I can only see Ohio trending more red.

The challenge of the moment is keeping our fragmenting country together. The Trump base has never been a majority, but they are a large minority and they apparently have few limits. Republicans in general have been playing a high stakes game for decades, methodically investing the time and resources to turn things their way. Now though it seems like they feel it slipping from their grasp. It’s this anxiety that is driving crazy stuff, like violent Proud Boys marches in Washington, D.C. Their tactics though only work as long as they work. With voter suppression losing its edge, and states moving slowly toward less gerrymandered districts, the extremes are feeling marginalized. In the past this would be a sign to expand their coalition by moving toward the middle, but Trump won’t let them.

President Elect Joe Biden has many things to tackle once he assumes office. But arguably the most important task will be to restore our democratic republic. Rule of law must reflect adherence to our actual law. Our government needs to function again.

How many years has it been since Congress not funded government through continuing resolutions? Congressional committees used to have real power; now most are fig leaves. The real power in Congress rests in its majority leader in the Senate, since he seems to control everything, most importantly its agenda. The situation in the House is not much better. Nancy Pelosi too is exercising powers largely beyond those traditionally granted to the Speaker of the House. So we get crazy things like an omnibus spending bill where members have two hours to read it before voting yea or nay and no opportunity to debate it. Agencies get by from year to year on continuing resolutions with little changing of their priorities and missions as a result of Congressional deliberations. Congress needs to do its job in the way it was set up to do it. Most of those in Congress though are arguably superfluous, since their power amounts to electing their majority leader or speaker, done every two years at best.

If we can’t run the government the way it was intended to be run, if power can’t be shared more equitably, if its members can’t even agree to a modicum of respect and compromise, things will only unravel more. Joe Biden at least seems to understand this. Let’s see how much he will actually be able to accomplish.