Speculations on the future of digital “currencies”

So my $88.31 or so that I was paid in BitCoin on July 1st is now valued at $174.20, according to BlockFi, where it still sits because I’ve been too lazy to sell it and turn it into U.S. dollars. Looks like my natural lethargy worked in my favor as if I had sold it for on August 2nd, when I last blogged on this topic, it was worth $109.71. I’d be out the $64.49 in extra value it has accumulated since then. If the “currency” continues to rise as it has since I acquired it on July 1st, I’ll get a 666% return on investment and it will be worth $587.95 on July 1st, 2022.

The people who study this stuff think that maybe one BitCoin will hit $100,000 soon, perhaps because it looks like a BitCoin futures electronic trading fund (ETF) will soon be approved by regulators. Anyhow, the guys I follow on YouTube are still all agog on digital currencies. Graham Stephan is upping it to five percent of his portfolio.

Should I do the same? With our portfolio hovering close to $2M, that would be $100,000. No, I don’t think so. But since I have only $174 of digital currency at risk, I see no harm in keeping the BitCoin I have to see how it does as a speculative asset. It will be interesting to track it at yearly intervals.

These digital “currencies” are clearly becoming a new market, like it or not. Lots of people like me continue to feel largely baffled by these virtual currencies. It’s easier to get behind them though when you consider that most currencies are like BitCoin: virtual. That’s true of the U.S. dollar because it’s a fiat currency.

In my last post on this topic, I lamented that there were no assets behind these “currencies”, unless you count the value of the electricity that it took to “mine” one of these “coins”. The U.S. is now the largest miner of digital currencies, and most of it is occurring in Texas where electricity is cheap, at least until there is another winter storm that knocks out most of its power grid. Since most of this power comes from non-renewable sources, owning currencies that are energy intensive to mine, like BitCoin, should come with a carbon tax. Maybe that would deflate its surreal valuation.

Its value is based purely on supply and demand. Which makes me wonder if these currencies are the latest version of a Ponzi scheme and I now own a tiny fraction of an electronic tulip. If it’s a Ponzi scheme, you want to sell your crypto before the market collapses.

What perhaps can be said is that this new “market” is still getting established and time will tell if it’s got legs. But on the other hand, BitCoin has been around since 2009. It’s hard to see it collapsing altogether, if only because so many people have vested wealth in it, and won’t want to lose their investment in it. These “currencies” though are so easy to create that clearly not all them will survive.

I do think that these “currencies” that more closely imitate real currencies are likelier to survive. A lot of work is going into creating versions of these “currencies” that act as currencies. For example, you can buy so-called stable coins whose value is tied to currencies like the U.S. dollar.

These stable coins are generally underwritten by private insurers. Governments are thinking of putting banking-like regulations on companies offering these stable coins, emulating FDIC-like protections. It will be interesting and confidence building if governments but their good faith and credit behind these stable coins by essentially underwriting them. By doing so though they tend to undermine the foundation by which digital currencies were unleashed: to detach themselves from the shackles of traditional currencies. It’s unclear why these “currencies” based on stable coins should be preferred to currencies already in circulation.

I wonder if there will be a Black Tuesday for these currencies. Black Tuesday was the event that kicked off the Great Depression. One of the lessons from Black Tuesday was we needed to keep banks from collapsing, so we formed the FDIC. Because of their decentralized nature though, there’s nothing to prevent a Black Tuesday for crypto, and no organization to prevent it or from happening again.

What’s more likely in my mind is that the block-chain technology rather than these “currencies” will prove to be where its true value lies. Nonfungible tokens, for example, offer proof of ownership and transfer, and work on block-chain technology pioneered by “currencies” like BitCoin. If the goal is to do away with traditional banking, these miners may be onto something. I’m much more skeptical that they can succeed in creating currencies that will be as ubiquitous and fluid as traditional currencies like the dollar.

Waitress vs. Moulin Rouge

We saw two shows during our recent trip to New York City. It was good to enjoy Broadway again, albeit behind a mask. The two shows, both musicals, could hardly be more different. One, Moulin Rouge, won the award for best musical. The other, Waitress, has run sporadically on Broadway since 2016.

Given that Moulin Rouge won best musical, the choice would seem to be obvious. Waitress was nominated for best musical in 2016, but lost. If you were to judge a musical by audience enthusiasm, Moulin Rouge would be the clear choice. It’s relatively new, although it opened on Broadway in 2019 and abruptly closed when the pandemic started. There was a buzz outside the theater as we tried to get in. The lady next to me in row U was hopping with excitement, and she was hardly alone. The dancing was amazing. The songs were familiar and plentiful. The sets and staging were lavish. At the end, people were actually dancing in the aisles. That and the inflated ticket prices should make this an easy call.

We saw Waitress at a Wednesday matinee. It’s based on the 2007 indie film of the same name that was something of a cult hit. Its star, Sara Bareilles, was also the musical’s songwriter and lyricist. There was virtually no dancing, and the sets were rather plain. Perhaps the most interesting item on its set were two arrays of pie plates that went from the stage floor to the top of the curtain.

Moulin Rouge had the virtue of being familiar and comfortable. If you saw the movie, there were virtually no changes except for adding more songs: there was a lot of time to fill. The movie was a surprise hit, fusing modern music with late 19th century Paris. So if you liked the movie, it should be hard not to like the musical. Just don’t expect Ewan McGreggor or Nichole Kidman in the lead parts. In the movie you got Jim Broadbent as Zeigler. Danny Burnstein does a pretty good job as Zeigler, and brings a slightly manic and mischievous energy to the part.

In Waitress, unless you are a Sara Bareilles fan, the music should be unfamiliar and original. Any new music in Moulin Rouge simply wraps the popular tunes you already know. In Moulin Rouge, part of the tension is between the haves and the have nots. In Waitress, the focus is on ordinary people. There is no character like the Duke to loath although lead character Jenna’s husband comes close. In Moulin Rouge, the focus is on love; in Waitress the focus is on good people generally in bad relationships and the mistakes they make. For most of the movie the star Jenna is having an affair with her gynecologist.

In the movie Moulin Rouge, Kidman and McGreggor bring a unique energy to their relationship. Sadly, it did not translate well on this Broadway stage. I tried hard to suspend disbelief, but for all the dancing and singing, the characters feel largely emotionally empty. Seeing it on stage made me realize that its plot is just piffle and comes off as extremely unconvincing.

On the other hand, the relationships in Waitress, however dysfunctional, seem grounded in real life and are wholly plausible. So many of us have walked these parts: waitress or waiter, short order cook, frequent diner patron … just ordinary folk. Unless you lived a very privileged life, Waitress is much more relatable. Moreover, at least with the cast I saw, the characters were easy to identify with and the energy on stage between the cast seemed real.

So the result surprised me. I was so excited to see Moulin Rouge as I really enjoyed the movie. The inflated ticket prices we paid and its best musical status made it feel like a sure bet, but it disappointed. Ultimately, it was a lot of glitz and spectacle, but misses the human element.

Waitress, on the other hand, was engaging, endearing, full of life’s complexities, musically enthralling and felt both real and meaningful.

So my take: skip Moulin Rouge‘s high ticket prices and go see a story that’s going to move you instead: Waitress.

The Fed can’t save the rest of us

It’s tempting to say there are four branches of government. In addition to the Executive, Legislative and Judicial branches, there is effectively a fourth branch of government: the Federal Reserve.

Often called the Federal Reserve Bank, it’s not a bank at all. You can’t deposit money into it, withdraw money from it or take out a loan with it. Many Americans have a vague idea what it does but almost no one knows where it’s actually located (Eccles Building, corner of 20th Street and Constitution Avenue in Northwest D.C.). More often referred to as “The Fed”, it is an institution that controls the supply of U.S. dollars. It also controls the banking system in the United States and has since 1913 when the Federal Reserve Act was passed by Congress.

The Fed has seven governors, most famously its chairman, currently Jerome Powell. While you may not pay much attention to the Fed, the financial world certainly does. When the Fed chair testifies or speaks, it can move markets instantly, often severely. Your portfolio can crash or soar depending on what these seven governors decide. They indirectly affect huge swaths of the economy, including interest and unemployment rates.

The curious thing about the Fed is that unlike the rest of our government it operates largely independently of politics. It’s mostly controlled by Republicans, since Republican presidents appointed most of the governors, currently with a 6-1 Republican lean. Each governor gets a four-year term, but once appointed, there’s not much anyone can do to remove a governor. It’s basically unaccountable.

The Fed’s special sauce is to control the money supply of U.S. dollars. It can create dollars as needed and doesn’t need to actually print them. For those few who still need paper or coins, the U.S. Treasury makes them. Lately, the Fed has created trillions of dollars in response to the pandemic. It does have a mission: maximizing employment, stabilizing prices, and moderating long-term interest rates. But really its only tool to do these things is to control the supply of U.S. dollars and then to figure out what to do, if anything, with that supply.

Before the Great Recession, its only real tool was to set a benchmark interest rate for banks to get money from the Fed or each other. In that recession they invented a new tool: quantitative easing. It gave itself permission to buy a lot of quasi-public debt, specifically U.S. housing debt in mortgage-backed securities in government managed institutions like Freddie Mac. This had the effect of flooding the market with cheap cash. The Fed hoped the money would be used to create stuff, but a lot of it was used by companies to buy back their own stock, inflating share prices without adding any value. As a result, the stock market had a slow recovery.

During our more recent pandemic recession, the markets weren’t calmed much by moving interest rates to near zero again and quantitative easing. Been there, done that. So the Fed invented new policies. This time they would use dollars it created to buy corporate debt outright, and in unlimited supply. This had the effect of flooding major companies with money, which again was mostly used by companies to buy back their own stock. It over-inflated the stock market.

One indirect effect was to push up the value of people’s portfolios, at least those who had portfolios. This gave them trickle down money to spend. Unfortunately, there wasn’t much to spend it on as the economy was in the tank and most people were home, but at least there were houses to buy with the money. It caused a run on housing prices, which is counterproductive if you are a renter.

But it’s good we had the Fed. In the Great Recession, particularly after Republicans took the House in the 2010 election, the White House and Congress were at loggerheads on new spending to stimulate the economy. Sensing it was good for the party if they were obstacles, Republicans didn’t allow much of it. The Fed’s actions did allow a slow recovery, but it was needlessly slow and painful because of inaction in Congress.

In the pandemic recession, Congress was able to get relief to a lot of Americans, so the Fed’s actions were more ancillary. The Fed succeeded in calming then boosting stock prices and making money cheap to borrow again, which helped the economy. It also inflamed inflation concerns.

My point is that the Fed has limited tools at its disposal. To the extent that it can lower unemployment, its actions are indirect at best. It’s much easier for it to move markets up than it is to bring down unemployment rates. The latter is a problematic outcome of the former.

There is the perception that the Fed has saved us in the last two recessions. But mostly it succeeded in pushing up asset prices, deciding that our country as a whole was too big to fail. But the stock market is not the economy. It can’t fix the economy. That can only happen if the White House and Congress work together to take necessary actions.

We saw some of that while Trump was president: expanded unemployment benefits, rental assistance, etc. That has continued under the Biden Administration, which got additional stimulus into the economy as one of its first priorities. This is money that largely went to everyday people for things like child care. This money allowed people to avoid some poverty but also to stimulate the economy. This way, along with spending bills like Biden’s Build Back Better proposal, affects ordinary people and the economy as a whole. The Fed’s effect is indirect, at best.

There aren’t many tricks left in the Fed’s toolbox to use in the next recession. Instead, what we need is functioning government in Washington where legislation that actually meets the needs of the people occurs. But if Republicans win back one or more houses of Congress in 2022, it seems they will be more preoccupied with Biden losing a 2024 election than doing what’s in the interest of the American people.

Traveling in the age of covid

We’re leaving New York City after three days of playing tourist. It’s my first trip away from home since the pandemic began.

It’s been interesting to see how much has changed for tourists in the age of covid, which turns out to be quite a lot. In NYC there are definitely privileges associated with being vaccinated. For one, we could get in to see two Broadway shows. Our vaccination cards and IDs were checked at the door, but even so we could not take off our masks during the performance. If you were eating or drinking food from the concessions, you could briefly unmask, but that was the only exception.

Amtrak requires you to self certify that you are vaccinated or have a recent negative covid-19 test, but doesn’t check your credentials. You wear your mask on the train, except when eating or drinking. Their cars are pretty big so it’s likely it wouldn’t be a problem if you were unmasked, but better safe than sorry. The penalty for not wearing a mask could be permanent disbarment from Amtrak.

You end up wearing a mask most of the time because most of the time you are indoors. There are a few exceptions when indoors. It’s pointless inside your hotel room. We had breakfast at our hotel and it was not possible when eating, but to get into the restaurant you had to show proof of vaccination and show an ID. Most people kept their mask on in the restaurant except while eating.

When outdoors, most people were unmasked. Those who were masked probably just didn’t want to bother temporarily unmasking. It’s not pleasant to spend most of your day breathing your warm air, but you do get used to it. The only real problem if that masks can get wet from your own breath after a while. I discovered a cloth mask is preferred, as a paper one I bought failed when looping it over my ears.

How safe is all this in the delta age? It’s hard to say. It’s unlikely I have acquired an infection, but for all I know I might test positive. I just don’t have any symptoms. I’m probably fine despite being in close quarters with other humans for hours at a time.

Without a N95 mask, masks won’t prevent me from getting covid, although they can lessen the odds. Their purpose is to reduce the risk that if I have the virus that I will pass it on to others. It’s basically common courtesy; wearing a mask effectively says that I care to take proactive steps to inadvertently pass it on to you. Not wearing a mask effectively says the opposite: I don’t care enough about you to bother to inconvenience myself by wearing one. No wonder that those of us who are vaccinated by 2:1 majorities are for requiring mask mandates for everyone.

So the vaccine can’t prevent exposure to the virus or ensure you don’t get the disease. If most everyone masks, it reduces greatly the odds of getting infected. But it does mean that if you are exposed to the virus, you may test positive but have no symptoms. The main point of the vaccine is to lessen the likelihood of hospitalization and death. That’s how vaccines work. So I expect that I will get covid-19 at some point, or at least test positive for it. If I’m lucky, I’ll never develop symptoms. If I get it, I will almost certainly not die from it and avoid hospitalization. And if most of us wear masks in public we can markedly reduce the level of infections and deaths.

I am noticing some new trends. At least in New York, restaurants are going menu-less: you need a smartphone to see the menu. You scan a QR code and follow the link to the menu. This saves a lot of paper, obviously, but it also allows restaurants to save money printing menus and to dynamically change prices. This is true of museums and other tourist attractions as well. For example, when we toured St. Patrick’s Cathedral, we used a QR code to download an electronic tour.

We were last in New York City in November 2019. The city has obviously changed since then. There are a lot of closed restaurants, even close to Broadway. Many restaurants are taking over sidewalks and parking places, allowing outdoor dining. The city doesn’t feel quite as busy and vibrant as it did back then. Broadway is about half reopened.

In general, New Yorkers are vaccinated and vaccine-savvy, and don’t have a problem masking up. They suffered 30,000 fatalities early in the pandemic, which helped, but being a large multi-cultural city they have learned to mostly get along with each other and are used to following rules.

It’s not surprising then that the city has weathered this latest covid wave reasonably well. These restrictions seem to be working reasonably well, allowing the city to do what it does best: make money. Judging by our hotel rates and ticket prices, they are making plenty of it again. I doubt this is true of most Southern states.

Save the republic?

It all feels so inevitable because this is a play we’ve been watching unfold for decades. Republicans have known that long that demographics are against them. For conservatives, it’s largely always been that way because they stacked the deck so that if they lose, it won’t be very often.

Assembling this country we call the United States involved enormous compromise, mostly by Northerners to bring in the Southern states. Since the constitution was ratified, southern states have been granted disproportionate federal influence. Slaves counted as three fifths of a person for electoral voting purposes, despite having no legal rights. This allowed Southern states to mostly control the Electoral College and the presidency for our first hundred years.

In fact, the Fugitive Act in the 19th century resembled Texas’s latest anti-abortion law in that it allowed private individuals to recapture slaves in the North and bring them back to the South, usually for a nice bounty from slaveholders. To elect Abraham Lincoln, it effectively took the Southern states to secede. Some of our most progressive constitutional amendments, including the 13th, 14th and 15th were possible only because Southern states were temporarily not part of government.

So the November 2020 election should not have been much of a surprise, nor the insurrection that occurred on January 6. We’ve been leading up to it for decades, but Donald Trump became the perfect poster child for the movement. It amounts to a refusal to follow the law and constitution when it gets too inconvenient.

It’s getting too inconvenient for Southern states. Joe Biden decisively defeated Donald Trump, despite extreme gerrymandering, despite extreme voter suppression and flipped a number of reliably red states like Georgia. Our republic just barely held it together on Inauguration Day. Lately, Republicans have refused to govern. Just yesterday they refused to a person to extend our debt limit, a limit they happily agreed to ignore for a few years when Donald Trump was president because they wanted those sweet tax cuts. Red states are trying hard to find more creative ways to ensure the 2020 election never happens again. In some states they’ve given the legislature permission to appoint different electors if they don’t like the way their citizens voted.

Some of their crazies are angling for a new civil war and are praying for a nice right-wing dictator to do away with our constitutional democracy, which is clearly hanging by a thread. In short, they seem to want to end our republic. They can’t abide with the idea of majority rule unless they are in the majority.

It’s all quite naked and dispiriting. Increasingly, I ask myself if there’s a way we could just have a nice, civil divorce. But I can’t see something like a gentleman’s agreement along the lines of Czechoslovakia splitting into the Czech and Slovak Republics. Southern states aren’t that civilized. Their idea of a civil divorce would be if they get everything, like all the nukes and armed forces. They would leave Blue states bankrupt. And that’s the best scenario.

It’s like trying to negotiate with a terrorist. That’s increasingly what these Southern states resemble. They believe in Barry Goldwater’s maxim that extremism in the defense of “liberty” is not a vice. Only their idea of liberty does not extend to non-whites, and increasingly not to women, at least over their reproductive rights.

The irony in all this is that if Democrats had sufficient backbone they probably could solve a lot of this problem, or at least put it in abeyance. Consider what could happen if two Democratic senators put the filibuster in abeyance just to pass a civil rights bill that ensured equal access to the vote to all citizens and impartially drawn congressional districts. But that of course would allow all voters to be equally enfranchised, something Senators Sinema and Machin don’t seem to want to do. At best they are naive. At worst they are acting as Republicans.

I do know I am tired of it and scared for our future. I have a feeling that ten years from now our nation will resemble nothing like what it resembles now, and it’s plenty bad now. It’s going to get much, much worse. I can feel it. So if there was a way to do a quickie divorce on states like Texas, Alabama and Mississippi, I’d be all for it. The “leaders” in these states are incorrigible,

There are plenty of anti-vaxxers on the left

It’s tempting to put all the blame for the pandemic on Republicans. At least when it comes to anti-vaxxers, blame can be allocated on many Democrats as well.

This is because there are plenty of “all natural” Democrats out there. While I hate to generalize, you will find a lot of them shopping at Whole Foods and attending yoga studios. They are busy eating organic, going vegan, eating whole grains and living minimally.

These are not bad things in and of themselves. They feel clean and wholesome by going all natural, which is why many times they prefer herbal supplements and holistic healers over prescription and non-prescription drugs and board certified physicians.

They believe they can become effectively immortal, or at least live to see 100, by going all natural. With this mindset, it can be hard to see something like a manufactured vaccine as something that you should let into your body. So they spurn vaccinations for themselves and their kids on principle.

These otherwise generally liberal people make strange bedfellows with many on the right who are also anti-vaxxers. At least these anti-vaxxers on the left seem to have at least the fig leaf of a rational explanation for their behavior. For those on the right, it seems to be about owning the libs by playing Russian Roulette.

I actually agree with a lot of their positions. Inarguably, eating vegan is better for the planet. Avoiding pesticides and other chemicals used in making food is also noble, if impractical for a lot of people. Nutritionists recommend whole grains and generally have no problem with people substituting vegan sources of protein for meat and fish. There’s generally nothing wrong with yoga either. If everyone were a vegan and lived sustainably, unquestionably our planet would be a much healthier place.

The problem is any philosophy can be taken to an unhealthy extreme. The assumption that if everything we ingest is clean we can live to be 100 and avoid disease is, well, bunk. In fact, there was a time when most of us were vegans, not out of choice but out of necessity. If you were a serf, you likely never ate any meat, unless there was a party at the manor and they let you in.

Meat was prohibitively expensive. Most people back then didn’t make it to age 30, and that was largely because there was little sanitation going on and diseases could run rampant. Modern medicine didn’t really come into being until late in the 19th century, and it was not available to most people as it was beyond their means. The history of diseases is they don’t discriminate: they infect and kill everyone equally, at least until you know enough about the disease so that you can improve your chances of not getting it. And that’s only possible through science.

There’s plenty of proof going on right now. About 1800 Americans are dying daily in this latest covid-19 wave, caused this time by the double whammy of a bare majority of people being vaccinated and an incredibly virulent delta covid-19 variant. One of 500 of us American is an official fatality from the pandemic, and number will doubtless keep rising. These days, if you are unvaccinated you have an eleven times higher likelihood of dying from covid-19. Plenty of these fatalities come from all-organic, all-vegan anti-vaxxers.

While their heart is in the right place, it sometimes overrules their heads. Survival belongs to the fittest, and while it may seem that the more fit and healthy you are the more likely you should be to ward off diseases, there’s little evidence to support this.

The evidence against it is plain to see in the statistics, but it requires you to engage the left side of your brain long enough to get vaccinated. Ideally, you can also engage that part of your brain long enough to allow board certified physicians to treat you instead of (or at least in addition to) holistic healing practitioners.

I admire many of these people and count some of them among my friends. I sometimes wish I could become a vegan, or at least a vegetarian. I eat a whole lot more fresh fruits, vegetables and whole grains than I used to. I’ve experimented with holistic medicine from time to time too, and found chiropractic care particularly useful. It’s going all in on anything that tends to be dangerous, as it clouds your thinking and makes it hard to see beyond your implicit biases.

The saddest part is that these people really don’t want to acquire or spread disease, but do in part because their thinking has become too muddled and dogmatic, allowing that vector that allows diseases like covid-19 to get in.

Who wants to be a two million dollar-aire?

I’ve been watching our net worth. It’s just a number and an inexact number at that. Your real net worth isn’t known until you are dead and your estate is settled.

There are lots of vagaries when calculating your net worth, such as the value of your house, cars and other possessions. I use the city’s appraisal of our house as a benchmark. It’s probably understated, but the city assessed it at $558,800. Cars tend to depreciate. Once a year, I use Consumer Reports car value estimator to figure that out. Assessing the value of our other property like furniture and clothes seems kind of pointless, as you can’t live in a home without them, so I don’t. The value of our stocks and bonds will fluctuate from day to day. About 66% of our net worth consists of these investments, so when markets are up our net worth tends to balloon, and visa-versa. Generally Quicken will keep track of the bottom line for me, but it won’t read in the prices for my Thrift Savings Plan funds, so I have to enter these manually.

I’ve been paying more attention lately because we’re getting close to hitting a bigger number: $2M in net worth. It was ten years ago when our portfolio hit the $1M mark, which technically made us millionaires. Back then I noted I didn’t feel particularly rich, because most of our wealth was in our house and because inflation erodes away at the value of our assets when priced in dollars. I’m guessing our net worth would need to be $20M – $50M in today’s dollars to really “feel” like a millionaire. With that level of wealth I’d probably have a couple of vacation homes and fly first class everywhere.

We would have briefly passed the $2M net worth mark has I not booked a cruise for December. That cost us about $7000 . The cruise companies don’t give you much time before you are required to pay in full. So that money is gone plus the stock market has slumped a bit. So we’re not quite at that $2M net worth threshold, but closing in at about $1.982M in net worth.

I’d like to brag that it was our great investing that is responsible for nearly doubling our net worth in ten years. But I largely leave that to our financial adviser. In truth, aside from the true luxury of being debt free, most of it is due to spending a lot less than our income. Even in retirement, as much as twenty percent of our income is saved. Since early this year, we’re not even withdrawing from our retirement accounts. Money coming in, mostly in the form of a generous federal pension plus Social Security, is responsible.

The pandemic has helped too. Until recently there was no place to go and it’s still a bit chancy to travel today. So much sitting at home has allowed me, a retiree, to rake in additional income from consulting services that I do online. It’s not a huge amount (about $27,000 so far this year), but it’s enough where I became subject to windfall elimination provisions in retirement laws. My social security payment this month was reduced for one month to $460 this month. This will likely affect me for a few years as long as I keep doing consulting. At my full retirement age (66.5 years), side income won’t affect my social security payments anymore.

In short, we’ve been fortunate rather than savvy. Certainly my relatively high salary when I was employed helped us eliminate debt and fund investments. Having just one child doubtless helped a lot too. Retiring debt free helped as well, but living in an area of rapidly rising house prices helped a lot. Also, the Federal Reserve has helped by making markets behave abnormally, pushing equity prices up when they should have dropped.

I’ll take credit for a certain amount of common financial sense, but our wealth seems mostly due to fortuitous timing and our government’s actions to keep financial markets afloat. It mostly feels like a lot of white privilege to me.

If I didn’t have the comfortable pension though, we’d be much more circumspect in our spending. These days, building wealth for us comes mostly from having that pension and not spending down our assets to maintain our standard of living. My consulting helps as well, but that income is never guaranteed.

What we are experiencing though was not that unusual in the past. People routinely retired on a pension and by the time they retired their mortgages were paid off. It didn’t cost an arm and a leg to raise a passel of kids or to send them through college. We may have more opportunities to spend wealth on more exotic trips like Caribbean cruises, but living a comfortable retirement used to be routine, at least for white people.

Policies that have sapped wealth from the working class and moved it into upper class largely explains why things are bleak for so many people of retirement age these days. Much of our wealth is because we were grandfathered into a system that is not an option for most working people.

I can’t take our portfolio with me into the hereafter, but I can live a comfortable and in some ways luxurious life in the time I have left alive. My intent is to see if we can keep getting rich and leave the bulk of our estate to charities that will lift people not so fortunate into opportunity and hopefully out of poverty.

A surfeit of adult babies

We’re coming up on the twentieth anniversary of 9/11. It was an unwanted seminal moment for us Americans, including me.

I was working by the National Mall at the time and recall the smoke rising from the Pentagon (where I had worked until 1998) and the otherwise surreal picture perfect day. It caused me to reassess a few things, including the risks of working in downtown D.C. As a result, about two years later I had switched jobs to one at the U.S. Geological Survey a few miles from my house in suburban Northern Virginia. It felt too dangerous to work downtown in a building butt up against the railroad tracks.

One result, in retrospect, was it made us more distrustful and paranoid as a people. Suddenly we had a reason to suspect all Muslims hated America, even those born and raised here. By definition, paranoia is generally not a reasonable fear. It’s still here today, but it’s far more irrational twenty years later.

When you live in fear, you tend to strangle reason. Civil rights and democracy can become nice-to-have things. Many of us crave autocracy instead, confident that a strong leader who mirrors our prejudices is the only solution to our need to feel things are somehow in control.

Still, not in my wildest dreams did it devolve into what we actually have today. Essentially, we have huge numbers of adult babies: grown up Calvins, determined to bring the whole system down because reality makes them anxious. Previously they were conservatives and took comfort in rule of law. Now they want to blow it all up and unleash the war and chaos that bothered them in the first place.

There’s no convincing these adult babies, at least with reason. They die disproportionately of covid-19 because they mostly aren’t vaccinated. Even as they die hooked up to ventilators they don’t believe they actually have covid-19. They ingest horse paste thinking an anti-parasitic is going to kill a virus when, at best, it’s only going to give them a bad case of the runs. They line up to receive monoclonal antibodies, a clinically proven treatment for those with cases of covid-19, while rejecting three highly effective vaccines clinically proven to dramatically reduce the likelihood of acquiring the disease, or if you get it, greatly reduce its likely severity. Their own opinion leaders, most of who were quietly vaccinated, are urging them on to recklessly endanger their own health. They have no idea what freedom actually means and no belief that shared sacrifices like masking are sometimes necessary. Freedom seems to mean the unrestrained ability to bring sickness and death both to intimates and society at large if you want to.

Reality is so inconvenient that apparently it must be killed. Public health officials warned that if we didn’t follow their advice we’d end up exactly where we are at. These adult babies have needlessly killed hundreds of thousands of Americans, many of whom make up their intimate circle. If life feels too discordant or truth feels too close, outlaw it. So don’t allow any critical teaching about racism in our public schools. Lying is now the point and apparently if you lie enough, it becomes truth.

And so we get a pro-life party willing to let their kids come down and die of covid-19 in public schools because masking Junior is somehow anti-freedom. Apparently they can deal fine with their own cognitive dissonance, since they’ll deny covid-19 is real through their dying breath. So everyone else has to as well.

Just grow up already! Except they can’t. Their psychoses are so engrained and advanced that there is no way out except through self-destruction that threatens the safety, health and civil order needed for society to function.

Since they can’t, I am finding it’s completely rational for me to wish they were all dead. They seem to be busy doing just that to themselves. I just hope there are enough of us rational people left to bring back order to the chaos they are unleashing.

Pandemic cruising … again

Is it crazy to cruise during a pandemic? Maybe, but for me our planned December cruise now officially booked is not our first pandemic cruise. There was also our theme cruise in March 2020. We were on a ship that was literally one of the last ones let back into the United States before cruising just stopped.

Thankfully, there were no cases of covid-19 on our ship during that cruise, although we later learned there was one unrelated death of a passenger. The ship berthed next to us was not so lucky.

These were early days during the pandemic. The virus was not particularly widespread at the time, even in Florida, although Florida was worse than most states, as it is now. Also, it was harder to catch as there was no delta variant. This was before masking became a thing. No one had masks or thought to wear one. We did have an epidemiologist on board, who gave us a little lecture. We took his advice and hung out away from the gates and between concourses while we waited six hours or so for our flight from Fort Lauderdale. We did bring lots of Clorox wipes. A month or two later we’d realize it was kind of pointless. It made our surfaces more sanitary, but it wasn’t understood then that covid-19 was principally an airborne disease.

So naturally we’re planning another cruise, again on Holland America, and again out of Fort Lauderdale. Just as the last cruise was risky, this one will be too. But to my way of thinking, it’s going to be less risky. Because Florida governor Ron DeSantis be damned, you have to be vaccinated to go on this cruise. You have to present a vaccination certificates and a negative covid-19 test no more than three days old.

On the ship, in the more closely confined spaces like elevators, you will have to mask up, and we’ll likely be masked up anyhow when not in our room or outside on the Lido deck or in a deck chair on the promenade. It’s likely we’ll be masked during our excursions too, assuming the countries will let us in.

The tide has turned with this new cruise, however. We weren’t let in to Grand Turk just on the fear one of us might have covid-19. This time our biggest risk probably comes from being around residents of the islands we’ll be visiting. Much of the rest of the world doesn’t have the opportunity to get vaccinated like we have in the United States. Some of the islands we will be visiting, like Barbados, likely will have most of its population unvaccinated. It’s unlikely they will acquire the disease from any of us. It’s hardly risk free to cruise in this pandemic age. But the risk does seem more manageable than on our last cruise.

Still, Fort Lauderdale is in Florida, and the state is arguably at the epicenter of the latest wave here in the United States. It didn’t have to be, but they have a sociopath for a governor. It would be nice if we could grab a similar cruise from a non-Florida port, but it’s not an option. The only real option is to keep holing down like we’ve been doing for eighteen months or so.

But even staying at home is not completely safe. It’s still risky (probably riskier than ever) to go shopping, even with a mask on. My wife volunteers, and one of her work places is the local emergency room. She is gloved, double-masked and even wears goggles but as there are usually at least a couple of covid patients in the waiting room, she’s already at elevated risk. She’s willing to accept the risk, and by inference so am I as I sleep next to her. Due to covid-19, she keeps expecting the hospital to end her volunteering. It happened before, but at least now they know what they are dealing with and how to keep reasonably safe.

The anti-vaxxers seem to either be unconcerned about their risk or place their faith in quack cures. A lot of them are now dead as a result. There’s a difference though between foolish risks and manageable risks. If I come down with covid-19, while I could die, it’s exceedingly unlikely because I’m vaccinated. I’m likely to avoid the hospital too. It’s likely I’ll be able to get a booster shot before our December cruise too.

We’ll be required to wear masks on the plane, but since we’re flying to Florida, extra precautions are warranted. I hope to find some N95 masks before then, or it I can’t, double mask and wear them on the plane and while in Florida. The cruise company is likely to know who we were near while on the ship should someone contract covid-19. And we took out cruise insurance to cut our losses if we can’t go.

I accept the risk of cruising in the covid-19 age because cruise companies aren’t reckless like Governor DeSantis and we can take reasonable precautions, but also because I don’t want to wholly give up travel because of the pandemic. Travel helps makes life feel worth living.

I’m tired of being housebound. We’ll use our brains and trust to science to keep these risks low and manageable, while realizing we can’t make them go away entirely. With covid-19 no longer a mystery, avoiding it is possible if you are careful. Most of us can live life and be reasonably safe, just so long as you do it mindfully and keep a clear head and follow the recommended protocols.

Or so I’m hoping. We’ll see how it goes.

Biden is unlikely to pay a political price for getting us out of Afghanistan

The images all over the news and social media on Afghanistan are heart wrenching. It was made more so when the predictable happened: a suicide bomber affiliated with ISIS-K, an Afghani ISIS affiliate of sorts, killed thirteen U.S. soldiers and more than a hundred others outside the gates of Kabul’s airport. Everyone seems to be pointing fingers at Biden, as if there was ever a way to get us out of Afghanistan in a safe and orderly manner.

Lost among all the finger pointing and nervous nellies wondering about all the political implications is what, in general terms, has been a pretty good withdrawal, under the circumstances. We evacuated more than 100,000 people out of the country in only a few weeks, massively dwarfing the 7,000 of so when we hastily pulled out of Vietnam. Yes, we’re leaving some equipment behind but most of it is obsolete or had been rendered inoperative. The cost and hassle to remove this equipment, much of it by road, was more than the cost of leaving it there. Leaving behind equipment is standard practice when getting out of conflicts like this.

Biden is unlikely to pay much of a political price because Americans want us the hell out of there. A Hill-Harris poll, for example, shows 73% support for Biden’s actions. Generally, foreign policy is simply not a factor in elections, which turn mostly on local issues. You’d have to go back to 1968 to find an election where foreign policy was a major issue (Vietnam in this case). Richard Nixon’s “secret plan” for getting us out of Vietnam was likely why he won that election.

Even Donald Trump realized that staying in Afghanistan was a political loser, which is why he negotiated with the Taliban and released thousands of Taliban fighters. His agreement with the Taliban had some upsides. For example, the Taliban pretty much agreed to stop targeting our soldiers, an agreement they lived up to. Until the recent incident at Kabul’s airport, just three U.S. soldiers had died in Afghanistan in 2021.

Our withdrawal from Vietnam also suggests it will be quickly forgotten. Until Afghanistan, it had been our longest war. At the time (I was a teenager, so I remember), Vietnam fatigue was overwhelming. Virtually no one wanted us to stay there. Like in Afghanistan, South Vietnam’s government was wholly corrupt and there was no fixing it.

If you want to hold Biden responsible for something, it’s for putting too much faith in the Afghani army. The fall of Vietnam suggested Afghanistan too would fall quickly too. I was not the least bit surprised that the Taliban rolled into Kabul with virtually no opposition. I was also not surprised that Afghanistan’s president would slip away to a foreign country, reputedly with millions of dollars in secret bank accounts. The same was true with South Vietnam’s last “president”, Nguyen Van Thieu. What would have been surprising if it Afghanistan’s president Ghani stayed and fought it out.

The good news is that our returning soldiers should get a lot better treatment than those who served in Vietnam. Most were scorned for their service, and tried to hide that they had ever served in Vietnam. Many Americans took it out on our soldiers that we lost there, so a lot of these soldiers ended up depressed, unemployed and suicidal. Mostly though America wanted to forget Vietnam. At the time we were much more consumed by the oil embargo, the gas lines it brought and high inflation.

Of course, now we have a much bigger distraction: covid-19, the story that seems to never end. We’re starting wave number four and in many places hospitals are overrun with covid-19 patients. In Louisiana, residents are likely to suffer a double-whammy due to Hurricane Ida’s landfall.

It’s becoming impossible to ignore these events close to home as we are all impacted by them. A week ago it was Hurricane Henri that affected us locally. Fortunately being more than a hundred miles inland, its affect was minimal. These more powerful storms, not to mention forest fires in western stakes, bring smoke, haze and air pollution eastward. We just have to look outside our window to see issues that matter to us.

Frankly. most of us don’t give two hoots about the wreckage of our presence over nearly twenty years caused in Afghanistan. What we can say is that soon we’ll be wholly out of there, and that huge sunk cost estimated to have cost us $2T won’t enlarge.

After Vietnam, many political refuges (“boat people”) there fled to refugee camps in Thailand and off China. We’ll have over 100,000 refugees to handle this time around, so there will be recurring news items as processing that volume of people is bound to be tiring, time consuming and messy.

But mostly these will be a back page stories. Over time, Vietnamese refugees made new lives for themselves in the United States, and enriched our country with their talents, hard work and productivity. It is likely the same will be true with these Afghan refugees.

Should Biden run for reelection, I’m sure Republicans will raise the withdrawal as an issue. It’s just that almost nobody will care.